NBA Line Projections – 16 Jan 21

As always keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 10 games (L10), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades.

Basic Statistic Projections

Rockets and Nets could be impacted by the recent trade (maybe both in a positive way).

Magic on the second night of back to back away games, last night in Boston.

76ers got players back from the COVID list last game (in a blowout win), but their L10 stats have been impacted by stars missing a few games. Embiid will miss tonight with knee pain though.

Memphis may get Ja Morant back in the lineup after a long layoff, keep an eye on that as gametime approaches.

Miami Heat may get Adebayo, Dragic, and others back from the COVID list. Their L10 Stats have been impacted by stars missing a few games.

Atlanta on the Second night of a back to back, last night in Utah, tonight in Portland (Brutal Travel). But Atlanta is drawing Sharp Action.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it. (To quantify, >30% is great value, 20-30% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

There is good Value on the Rockets Spread and ML, though that may be impacted by the recent departure of Harden.

Charlotte and Atlanta also showing good values on the spread based on the basic statistical model.

No value on game totals according to these projections.

Linear Regression Projections

Rockets and Nets could be impacted by the recent trade (maybe both in a positive way).

Magic on the second night of back to back away games, last night in Boston.

76ers got players back from the COVID list last game (in a blowout win), but their L10 stats have been impacted by stars missing a few games. Embiid will miss tonight with knee pain though.

Memphis may get Ja Morant back in the lineup after a long layoff, keep an eye on that as gametime approaches.

Miami Heat may get Adebayo, Dragic, and others back from the COVID list. Their L10 Stats have been impacted by stars missing a few games.

Atlanta on the Second night of a back to back, last night in Utah, tonight in Portland (Brutal Travel). But Atlanta is drawing Sharp Action.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it. (To quantify, >30% is great value, 20-30% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

There is good Value on the Rockets Spread and ML, though that may be impacted by the recent departure of Harden.

Brooklyn and Philly also have good value on the Spread and ML as well, although they are also impacted by recent injuries and trades.

No value on game totals according to these projections.

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