NBA Line Projections – 19 Jan 21

As always keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 10 games (L10), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades.

Short slate of games today, should give me time to finish up my next NBA model and have it available before the end of the week. New format coming when new models come out.

Sharp money yesterday went 4-1.

Basic Statistic Projections

ATS Record: 2-4 Yesterday, 53% on the season.

Total O/U: 3-4 yesterday, 50% on the season.

Sharp action on Nuggets and Jazz.

Nobody is on a back to back, but the elevation in Utah and Denver give the home teams an inherent advantage, especially against a high pace team like OKC.

OKC has some injury issues with Horford and Ariza out, leaving George Hill and Gilgeous-Alexander to provide most of the offense.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it. (To quantify, >30% is great value, 20-30% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

Some small value on OKC and the Pelicans which goes against the side the sharps are on but do boost the pick quality of this models projections.

No value on game totals according to these projections.

Linear Regression Projections

ATS Record: 3-3 Yesterday, 45% on the season.

Total O/U: 7-2 yesterday, 62% on the season.

Sharp Action on Nuggets and Jazz.

Nobody is on a back to back, but the elevation in Utah and Denver give the home teams an inherent advantage, especially against a high pace team like OKC.

OKC has some injury issues with Horford and Ariza out, leaving George Hill and Gilgeous-Alexander to provide most of the offense.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it. (To quantify, >30% is great value, 20-30% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

Some value on the same side as the sharps. With Sharps, the model, and the value on the side of the Nuggets and Jazz, this model supports those as high quality picks for the night.

No value on game totals according to these projections.

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