NBA Line Projections – 20 Jan 21

As always keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 10 games (L10), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades.

Full slate of games today, check back for updates periodically throughout the day as I get more info in. Finishing up my next NBA model and have it available before the end of the week. New report format coming when new models come out.

Sharp Report

Sharp money yesterday went 2-0 and is 6-1 over the last 2 days.

Early Money

Early ATS Sharp money is on the Pistons & Suns.

Early O/U Sharp money is on the Kings/Clippers Over, Grizz/Blazers Under, Warrior/Spurs Under

Mid Day

ATS – Sharp money has come in on the Grizzlies and continued a little bit on the Pistons.

O/U – Sharp money has some take back on Grizzlies/Blazers to the over. Some Sharp money has come in on Hawks/Pistons under and Suns/Rockets Under.

Late Afternoon

ATS – Sharp money has come on strong on the Kings. Money has also come in on the Hawks, pushing the line back to 5.5. Small Sharp money on the Rockets.

O/U – The Kings/Clippers have gotten a decent amount of take back on the under (Take back – Sharps on the over early now on the under after the line moved up this morning). Still some money on the under in the Hawks/Pistons but its levelled out a bit. Some small over money on the Magic/T-Wolves.

Basic Statistic Projections

ATS Record: 0-2 Yesterday, 53% on the season (Probability has to be >55% for it to go towards record).

Total O/U: 0-0 yesterday, 50% on the season (Probability has to be >55% for it to go towards record).

No teams are on a back to back.

The Cavaliers are expecting to have Darius Garland back in the lineup but the Nets are also expected to get Kyrie Irving back in the lineup as well, interesting to see how he fits with KD and James Harden on the court.

Jason Tatum is still out for Boston who struggled offensively without him last game. Seth Curry now out for 76ers.

Nurkic and McCollum are both out for Portland tonight.

Memphis-Portland game Postponed.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it. (To quantify, >30% is great value, 20-30% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

The best value today appears to be on the Boston Celtics both ATS and ML. There is also good value on the Pistons which is also the same side the sharps are on early.

No value on game totals according to these projections.

Linear Regression Projections

ATS Record: 1-0 Yesterday, 46% on the season (Probability has to be >55% for it to go towards record).

Total O/U: 0-1 yesterday, 62% on the season (Probability has to be >55% for it to go towards record).

No teams are on a back to back.

The Cavaliers are expecting to have Darius Garland back in the lineup but the Nets are also expected to get Kyrie Irving back in the lineup as well, interesting to see how he fits with KD and James Harden on the court.

Jason Tatum is still out for Boston who struggled offensively without him last game. Seth Curry now out for 76ers.

Nurkic and McCollum are both out for Portland tonight.

Memphis-Portland game Postponed.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it. (To quantify, >30% is great value, 20-30% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

According to the linear regression model there is great value on both Boston ATS and Minnesota ATS & ML. There is also good value on the Pistons which is also the same side the sharps are on early.

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