NBA Line Projections – 21 Jan 21

As always keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 10 games (L10), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades.

Short slate of games today, check back for updates periodically throughout the day as I get more info in. Multiple machine learning algorithms coming tomorrow including a re-built and optimized Linear Regression Model. New report format coming when new models come out.

Sharp Report

Sharp money yesterday went 4-5 and is 10-6 over the last 3 days.

Early Money

ATS – There is decent Sharp money on the Lakers (+2.5) and Pelicans (+7).

O/U – There is decent Sharp money on the Lakers/Bucks Under (229.5).

Mid Day

ATS – Lakers moved all the way to -1 favorites, now there has been a bunch of take back and the Bucks are back to -1 favorites (Meaning Sharp money has come in on the Lakers since this morning). Some small Sharp money has come in on the Knicks.

O/U – Sharp money is coming in on the Pelicans/Jazz Under (216.5) and the Knicks/Warriors Under (215.5).

Late Afternoon

All of the money coming in recently has been pretty even without any significant Sharp Action that I can tell.

Basic Statistic Projections

ATS Record: 3-5 Yesterday, 52% on the season (Probability has to be >55% for it to go towards record).

Total O/U: 3-5 yesterday, 50% on the season (Probability has to be >55% for it to go towards record).

Golden State Warriors are on the second night of back to back home games.

As of this morning there isn’t any significant injury news for tonight’s games.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it. (To quantify, >30% is great value, 20-30% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

According to the basic statistical model there isn’t a whole lot of value, with the best value coming on the Knicks ATS. Check out the projections and sharp report to see if the value is worth a bet.

No value on game totals according to these projections.

Linear Regression Projections

ATS Record: 2-5 Yesterday, 44% on the season (Probability has to be >55% for it to go towards record).

Total O/U: 4-5 yesterday, 57% on the season (Probability has to be >55% for it to go towards record).

Golden State Warriors are on the second night of back to back home games.

As of this morning there isn’t any significant injury news for tonight’s games.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it. (To quantify, >30% is great value, 20-30% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

According to the linear regression model there is great value on the Warriors both ATS and ML. There is also decent value on the Bucks and Pelicans as well, check out the projections and sharp report to see if the value is worth a bet.

No value on game totals according to these projections.

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