NBA Line Projections – 24 Jan 21

As always keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 10 games (L10), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades. I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Residual absences from previous games could be skewing some results (for example, Zion, Lonzo, and Ingram missed a few games for the Pelicans within the L10 which could be negatively affecting their line projections since stats are pulled from L10).

I will only post the top 3 scoring models, but I will keep track on how every model is doing and keep record up to date right here. I put up a feedback form at the bottom of the page, please provide some feedback if you want to see something different.

Sorry everybody you are just going to have to scroll through. I couldn’t use the clickable table of contents because I don’t have the premium version of wordpress, so its disabled (and I don’t want to spend money just for a table of contents).

**Models Updated 11:00am CST.

Records

Here is how the models have been performing. So far most of the Machine Learning Models have performed well… but it’s been a small sample size.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. kNN – 73%
  2. Neural Network – 65%
  3. SVM – 59%
  4. Ada Boost – 56%
  5. Basic Statistical Model – 51%
  6. Linear Regression – 50%
  7. SGD – 48%
  8. Random Forest – 47%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Player and Team news

Nobody is on a back to back.

Horford still appears to be out for OKC, his absence wont be fully reflected in the stats.

Jason Tatum is still out which is a huge blow to the Celtics who are 0-3 in his absence and struggling to score consistently.

Trae Young is questionable for todays game with back spasms. If he misses the game his absence wont be reflected in the stats.

The Wizards are hit hard by COVID and haven’t played since 11 Jan. Westbrook is listed as questionable for tonight’s game but all indications are that he will play.

Nurkic and McCollum are out for the Blazers and their absence wont be fully reflected in the stats.

*Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam will be out today. Their absence won’t be reflected in the stats.

Sharp Report

Early Money

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pacers (-1, Small), Clippers (-12, Small), Hornets (+1), Spurs (-5.5), Hawks (+9), and Knicks (+5, small).

O/U – Some very small Sharp money has come in on the Hornets/Magic Under (214) and Knicks/Blazers Under (214.5).

Mid Day

ATS – Sharp money continues on the Spurs (-6.5), although it has slowed down a bit. Some Sharp money has also come in on the Hawks (+8.5).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Cavs/Celtics Under (214.5).

Late Afternooon

[Sorry, No late afternoon report today]

Model Projections

1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record: 71% ATS, 75% O/U.

How it Works

[I will write this up later in the day if I have time].

Model Projections

The kNN model is off to a hot and fast start, let’s hope it keeps it going. The success has been too good for any model and this is likely do for a regression. Last season the kNN ended the year at about a ~61% ATS winning percentage.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >30% is great value, 20-30% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

2. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

Record: 77% ATS, 53% O/U.

How it Works

[I will do a write up later in the day if I have time]

Model Projections

The Neural Network has been good at both ATS and O/U projections. I did not use this algorithm last year, so we will see how it does in its first NBA season.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >30% is great value, 20-30% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

3. Support Vector Machine (SVM)

[Nerd Talk] I originally had the Kernel set to linear for the past year, but started playing with it recently and found a drastic improvement using a Sigmoid kernel.

Record: 58% ATS, 60% O/U.

How it Works

[I will do a write up later in the day if I have time]

Model Projections

The SVM algorithm crushed it last year in baseball with ~62% of prediction correct. This is the first time I’m using it for basketball.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >30% is great value, 20-30% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).


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