NBA Line Projections – 26 Jan 21

As always keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 8 games (L8), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades. I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Residual absences from previous games could be skewing some results (for example, Zion, Lonzo, and Ingram missed a few games for the Pelicans within the L8 which could be negatively affecting their line projections since stats are pulled from L8).

The percentage records have started to be tracked and will be posted with the writeup of the top 3 performing models.

Rough day yesterday for ATS Bettors, all models went 3-6 ATS.

Records

Here is how the models have been performing. So far most of the Machine Learning Models have performed well… but it’s been a small sample size.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. kNN – 67%
  2. Random Forest – 58%
  3. SVM – 56%
  4. Ada Boost – 55%
  5. Neural Network – 54%
  6. Basic Model – 51%
  7. Linear Regression – 48%
  8. SGD – 44%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

These Consensus ATS picks seem odd that they are all on the same side, but with some teams impacted by injuries, COVID, and teams on a back to back, I will be fading some of these picks.

O/U Projections

Player and Team News

Nobody is on a back to back tonight.

Kahwi, Paul George, and Pat Beverly are all out for the Clippers due to COVID protocols. Trae Young and Clint Capela are questionable and missed the last game. None of these absences will be reflected in the stats.

Wizards still dealing with COVID issues. Rockets breakout player Christian Wood appears to be doubtful for tonight’s game, neither of which will be accounted for in the stats. John Wall returned to play last game after missing a few games and is expected to play tonight.

Sharp Report

Early Money

Only 1 game has data available and there doesn’t appear to be any noticeable Sharp action yet.

Mid Day

ATS – Sharps have been on the Hawks driving the line from -1 to -4.5, this is likely due to the Clippers COVID issues. Sharps have also hit the Rockets (-1.5 to -3.5) and small money on the Jazz (-10.5)

O/U – Sharp Money has come in on the Clippers/Hawks Under (224.5).

Late Afternooon

Nothing significant on the last report of the day.

Model Projections

1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 63% ATS, 71% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

The kNN model is off to a hot and fast start, but had a rough day on Monday, 26 Jan. Last season the kNN ended the year at about a ~61% ATS winning percentage.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

2. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 53% ATS, 63% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

The Random Forest has been pretty good at O/U projections and had a recent cold spell on ATS projections. Last year Random forest ended the season with a ~58% winning percentage.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

3. Support Vector Machine (SVM)

[Nerd Talk] I originally had the Kernel set to linear for the past year, but started playing with it recently and found a drastic improvement using a Sigmoid kernel.

Record

Record: 54% ATS, 57% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

The SVM algorithm crushed it last year in baseball with ~62% of prediction correct. This is the first time I’m using it for basketball.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

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