NBA Line Projections – 27 Jan 21

As always keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 8 games (L8), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades. I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Residual absences from previous games could be skewing some results (for example, Zion, Lonzo, and Ingram missed a few games for the Pelicans within the L8 which could be negatively affecting their line projections since stats are pulled from L8).

Rough day yesterday for ATS Bettors, most models went went 0-3 or 1-2 ATS. Back to back bad days for the models.

Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. kNN – 65%
  2. Random Forest – 57%
  3. Ada Boost – 55%
  4. Neural Net – 55%
  5. SVM – 54%
  6. Basic Model – 51%
  7. Linear Regression – 49%
  8. SGD – 44%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Player and Team News

The Jazz, Hawks, and Wizards are on the second night of a back to back. The Wizards are the only team travelling on the back to back but the travel is Houston to New Orleans, so nothing major.

Blake Griffin is out for a second straight game for the Pistons.

Sabonis is a game time decision for the Pacers, could be a huge impact if he cant go.

Miami Heat are still hit hard by injury and COVID, Jimmy Butler has already been ruled out for todays game although this is his 9th game he has missed so the stats have accounted for his absence.

Siakam is considered a game time decision for the Raptors, he has missed 2 straight with a knee injury.

Devin Booker has been ruled out for a second straight game which will be a huge impact to the suns and wont be reflected in the stats.

DeAngelo Russel is considered a game time decision for the wolves. He has missed a few games so this will be semi reflected in the stats.

*Al Horford will return today! Al Horford could return to the Thunder tonight after a six game absence. If he plays his impact wont be reflected in the stats.

*Russell Westbrook is now out for the Wizards for a rest day

*Donavon Mitchell out for the Jazz with a concussion

*Goran Dragic is now out for the Heat

Sharp Report

Early Money

Not much information is posted on todays games.

O/U – Some small Sharp money has come in on the Pistons/Cavs Under (214.5).

Mid Day

ATS – Sharp money has come in on the Bucks (-5.5), Nuggets (-5, small), Hawks (+7), and Suns (-6).

O/U – Sharp money has come in on the Mavs/Jazz Under (225.5), Nuggets/Heat Under (220.5), and Celtics/Spurs Under (225).

Late Afternooon

Posted about 5:00pm CST

Model Projections

1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 60% ATS, 70% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

The kNN model is off to a hot and fast start, but had a rough day on Tuesday, 26 Jan. Last season the kNN ended the year at about a ~61% ATS winning percentage.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

2. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 66% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

The Random Forest has been pretty good at O/U projections and had a recent cold spell on ATS projections. Last year Random forest ended the season with a ~58% winning percentage.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

3. Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost)

I did not learn boosting in Grad School, but I know this is some form of boosted tree algorithm. But I had the code and the data I already had didn’t need to be re-formatted so we will see how this 100 tree estimator performs together.

Record

Record: 58% ATS, 51% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

This is the first time I’m using Ada Boost for basketball.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

5 comments

    1. I am by no means a Sharp. No I look at the line movement and where the bets and money are to provide where the actual sharps are likely betting. It can get skewed if some rich person throws a lot of money down, but its pretty accurate for regular season (not so much for playoffs when everybody is interested and betting big).

      Like

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