NBA Line Projections – 29 Jan 21

As always keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 8 games (L8), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades. I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Residual absences from previous games could be skewing some results (for example, Zion, Lonzo, and Ingram missed a few games for the Pelicans within the L8 which could be negatively affecting their line projections since stats are pulled from L8).

Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. kNN – 65%
  2. Random Forest – 60%
  3. Ada Boost – 57%
  4. Neural Net – 56%
  5. SVM – 56%
  6. Basic Model – 51%
  7. Linear Regression – 50%
  8. SGD – 48%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Player and Team News

Clippers are on a back to back, in Miami last night. They are still without Paul George, Kawhi, and Pat Beverly due to COVID protocols. their absence wont be fully reflected in the stats since they have only missed 3 of the last 8 games.

*It looks like Kawhi and Paul George are out of COVID protocols and will play today for the Clippers. Pat Beverly is still out.

Clint Capela will play for the Hawks tonight. Clint Capela is a game time decision for the Hawks. Washington continues to get reinforcements back from COVID protocol.

Lonzo Ball is considered a game time decision for the Pelicans with an ankle injury.

Anonouby missed the last game for Toronto and is a game time decision today.

Joel Embiid and DeAngelo Russell are considered game time decisions for the 76ers vs T-Wolves game. Neither teams stats will fully account for their absences with Embiid missing 1 game in the last 8 and Russell missing 3. Wolves are still with out KAT but he has been out long enough that the wolves stats have accounted for his absence.

Al Horford returned last game for the Thunder. His impact wont be fully reflected in the stats, playing in just 1 of the last 8 games.

*Donavon Mitchell Has been ruled out! His absence will not be reflected in the stats.

*Kevin Durant is out for the Nets.

Sharp Report

Early Money

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hornets (+4), Kings (+5.5) and the Cavs (+2).

O/U – Sharp money has come in on the Pacers/Hornets Under (220.5), Kings/Raptors Over (228.5), and Nuggets/Spurs Under (225).

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come the Wizards (+4.5).

O/U – No noticeable Sharp money has come in on the O/U.

Late Afternooon

No late report today.

Model Projections

1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 62% ATS, 67% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

Last season the kNN ended the year at about a ~61% ATS winning percentage.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

2. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 52% ATS, 68% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

The Random Forest has been pretty good at O/U projections. Last year Random Forest ended the season with a ~58% winning percentage.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

3. Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost)

I did not learn boosting in Grad School, but I know this is some form of boosted tree algorithm. But I had the code and the data I already had didn’t need to be re-formatted so we will see how this 100 tree estimator performs together.

Record

Record: 60% ATS, 54% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

This is the first time I’m using Ada Boost for basketball.

Betting Value

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s