NBA Line projections – 30 Jan 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 8 games (L8), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades. I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Residual absences from previous games could be skewing some results (for example, Zion, Lonzo, and Ingram missed a few games for the Pelicans within the L8 which could be negatively affecting their line projections since stats are pulled from L8).

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Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. kNN – 62%
  2. Random Forest – 61%
  3. Neural Net – 57%
  4. SVM – 56%
  5. Ada Boost – 55%
  6. Basic Model – 51%
  7. Linear Regression – 50%
  8. SGD – 48%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Kings (Tor to Mia), Pelicans (Home), Bucks (NO to Char), Hornets (Home), Mavs (Utah to Home), and Spurs (Home).

Nurkic and McCollum still out for the Blazers. They have missed 4 games so their impact will show a little bit in the stats.

Miami Heat have a lot of players on the injury report and in COVID protocol, though it is looking like Butler and Herro will play for the Heat after missing a few games due to COVID protocol and injury respectively. Their impact wont be fully reflected in the stats.

Memphis Grizz are looking like a good chunk of their team will be out tonight. They have had a lot of COVID issues and haven’t played in a while.

Devin Booker appears to be out again tonight, he has missed the last 2 games so his impact won’t be fully reflected in the stats.

Sharp Report

Early Money

Not enough betting data to report noticeable Sharp action.

Mid Day

ATS – Some small Sharp action has come in on the Rockets (+1), Spurs (-3), and Pistons (+5). There hasn’t been any large Sharp action.

O/U – Some Sharp Money has come in on the Lakers/Celtics Under (218.5), Suns/Mavs Under (217), and Pistons/Warriors Under (225).

Late Afternoon

Nothing noticeable to report as far as late Sharp action.

Model Projections

1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 62% ATS, 62% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

Last season the kNN ended the year at about a ~61% ATS winning percentage.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

2. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 55% ATS, 67% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

The Random Forest has been pretty good at O/U projections. Last year Random Forest ended the season with a ~58% winning percentage.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

3. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

Record

Record: 53% ATS, 60% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

This is the first time I’m using Ada Boost for basketball.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

4 comments

    1. The line diff is just the difference between the vegas line and the line from the projected score. The bigger the difference the more the projected scores are off from the vegas lines and you will see one of the cover probabilities go up (the cover prob doesn’t use the line diff in its calculation, but they both use the projected line and vegas lines so they will both increase/decrease together).

      Like

      1. Apologies if any of my questions seem dumb, just trying to get get in the weeds and figure out how to make some picks.

        Like

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