NBA line projections – 31 jan 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 8 games (L8), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades. I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Residual absences from previous games could be skewing some results (for example, Zion, Lonzo, and Ingram missed a few games for the Pelicans within the L8 which could be negatively affecting their line projections since stats are pulled from L8).

Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. Random Forest – 62%
  2. kNN – 61.5%
  3. Neural Net – 57.5%
  4. SVM – 57%
  5. Ada Boost – 57%
  6. Basic Model – 52%
  7. Linear Regression – 51%
  8. SGD – 48%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Player and Team News

Nobody is on a back to back.

Donavon Mitchell will play today after sitting out last game. is a game time decision. He missed the last game with a concussion and his absence will not be reflected in the stats if he doesn’t go.

Anonouby has missed the last few games for the Raptors and is out today.

DeAngelo Russell is a game time decision. He has missed the last 3 games so if he doesn’t play his absence will only be slightly reflected in the stats.

*James Harden is out today for the Nets.

*Joel Embiid is out for the 76ers.

Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data is available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Wizards (+9).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Cavs/Wolves under (220).

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Clippers (-8.5) and Jazz (+1).

O/U – The Magic/Raptors total has seen a lot of Sharp action with subsequent line movement dropping from 220.5 to 215.5.

Late Afternoon

No late Sharp report today.

Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 57% ATS, 67% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

The Random Forest has been pretty good at O/U projections. Last year Random Forest ended the season with a ~58% winning percentage.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

2. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 63% ATS, 60% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

Last season the kNN ended the year at about a ~61% ATS winning percentage.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

3. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

Record

Record: 55% ATS, 60% O/U.

Just started tracking percentages on 25 Jan, I will keep them updated on here from now on.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

This is the first time I’m using Ada Boost for basketball.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

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