NHL Line Projections – 31 Jan 21

I do not bet NHL and I do not follow it extremely close either, so right now the plan is to keep it simple and post just the top performing model. I don’t have the time to go more in-depth like I do with NBA. If you have any suggestions please let me know!

Hope you all can get something useful from this and, as always, best of luck everyone!

Records

There was an issue with recording the records from yesterdays games. I didn’t notice until after I had entered today’s game info (which overwrites yesterdays data). Only a couple of records are available for yesterdays games and here is how they did:

  • Random Forest was 9-3 ATS, 4-3 Moneyline, and 3-5 O/U.
  • SVM was 8-4 ATS, 4-8 Moneyline, and 5-6 O/U.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS, Moneyline, and O/U.

Updated after todays games.

  1. kNN – TBD
  2. Random Forest – TBD
  3. Ada Boost – TBD
  4. Neural Net – TBD
  5. SVM – TBD
  6. Basic Model – TBD
  7. Linear Regression – TBD
  8. SGD – TBD

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

Moneyline Projections

O/U Projections

Model Projections

1. Random Forest

The Random Forest model is set to use 40 trees, which proved to be the best performance in initial testing.

Record: 9-3 ATS, 4-3 Moneyline, and 3-5 O/U

Model Projections

This is the first time I am using any of these algorithms for NHL.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

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