NBA Line Projections – 1 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 8 games (L8), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades. I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Residual absences from previous games could be skewing some results (for example, Zion, Lonzo, and Ingram missed a few games for the Pelicans within the L8 which could be negatively affecting their line projections since stats are pulled from L8).

Rough day yesterday, hopefully today brings better results.

Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. kNN – 60%
  2. Random Forest – 59%
  3. Neural Net – 55%
  4. SVM – 54%
  5. Ada Boost – 54%
  6. Basic Model – 51%
  7. Linear Regression – 50%
  8. SGD – 47%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Denver (Home), Cavs (Min to Cle), Knicks (NY to Chi), & T-Wolves (Min to Cle).

Karl Anthony-Towns is projected to make his return today. his impact will not be reflected in the stats.

Nurkic and McCollum are still out, missing 6 and 5 games respectively. Their impact should be mostly reflected in the stats.

Devin Booker is considered a game time decision.

*Andre Drummond is out tonight.

Sharp Report

Early Money

ATS – Some small Sharp money has come in on the Thunder (+5.5), Kings (+4.5), and Knicks (+4.5).

O/U – Some early Sharp money is on the Lakers/Hawks Under (220). Not much betting info on totals yet this morning.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hawks (+6.5), Heat (-5), and Spurs (-3).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hornets/Heat Under (222).

Late Afternoon

No new noticeable Sharp action late.

Model Projections

1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 60% ATS, 59% O/U.

Model Projections

Last season the kNN ended the year at about a ~61% ATS winning percentage.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

2. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 55% ATS, 62% O/U.

Model Projections

The Random Forest has been pretty good at O/U projections. Last year Random Forest ended the season with a ~58% winning percentage.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

3. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

Record

Record: 52% ATS, 58% O/U.

Model Projections

This is the first time I’m using Ada Boost for basketball.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

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