NHL Line Projections – 1 Feb 21

I do not bet NHL and I do not follow it extremely close either, so right now the plan is to keep it simple and post just the top performing model. I don’t have the time to go more in-depth like I do with NBA. If you have any suggestions please let me know!

Hope you all can get something useful from this and, as always, best of luck everyone!





Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS, Moneyline, and O/U. Ada Boost has been the top performing model through 2 days, but was by far the worst performing model in initial testing (much larger data set), so I am hesitant to push that model out as my projections until it can continue to perform well over a larger dataset. kNN performed decently well on both the initial testing and the last 2 days.

Updated after todays games.

  1. kNN – 60%
  2. Ada Boost – 61%
  3. Random Forest – 56%
  4. SVM – 55%
  5. Neural Network – 46%
  6. Linear Regression – 44%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

Moneyline Projections

O/U Projections

Model Projections

1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 22 Neighbors.

Model Projections

This is the first time I am using any of these algorithms for NHL.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

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