NBA Line Projections – 2 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pull from the Last 8 games (L8), so be aware of teams stats that don’t reflect recent injuries, recent returns, and recent trades. I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Residual absences from previous games could be skewing some results (for example, Zion, Lonzo, and Ingram missed a few games for the Pelicans within the L8 which could be negatively affecting their line projections since stats are pulled from L8).

*Updated Lines at 11:00am CST.

Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. kNN – 59%
  2. Random Forest – 58%
  3. Neural Net – 55%
  4. SVM – 54%
  5. Ada Boost – 54%
  6. Basic Model – 52%
  7. Linear Regression – 50%
  8. SGD – 47%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Memphis (San Antonio to Indiana) & Portland (Mil to Was).

McCollum and Nurkic are still out, but there impact should be mostly reflected in the stats.

Wiseman is out for the Warriors & Smart is out for the Celtics. There impacts in that game wont be reflected in the stats.

Aaron Gordon got injured last game and will be out a while. His loss wont be reflected in the stats.

Anonouby is still projected as out for the Raptors. His loss will be somewhat reflected in the stats now out for a 3rd game.

Sharp Report

Early Money

Not enough betting data is available this morning.

Mid Day

ATS – Sharp money has come in on the Clippers (0) and Jazz (-9).

O/U – Sharp money has come in on the Rptors/Magic Under (219), Clippers/Nets Under (245), and Pistons/Jazz Under (222.5).

Late Afternoon

No noticeable late Sharp money.

Model Projections

1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 60% ATS, 58% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

Last season the kNN ended the year at about a ~61% ATS winning percentage.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular number. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

2. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 55% ATS, 61% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

The Random Forest has been pretty good at O/U projections. Last year Random Forest ended the season with a ~58% winning percentage.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

3. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

Record

Record: 53% ATS, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

This is the first time I’m using Ada Boost for basketball.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, please read my post about betting tips. The percentages represent value for that particular bet type, number, and price. Good value alone doesn’t mean you should bet it (To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value).

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