NBA Line Projections – 3 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. kNN – 59%
  2. Random Forest – 58%
  3. Neural Net – 54%
  4. SVM – 53%
  5. Ada Boost – 53%
  6. Basic Model – 51%
  7. Linear Regression – 50%
  8. SGD – 46%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Clippers (Brooklyn to Cle), Celtics (San Francisco to Sac), and Pacers (Home to Mil).

Andre Drummond is a game time decision for the Cavs, if he cant go for a second straight game, his impact wont be reflected in the stats.

John Wall is out for the Rockets. His absence wont be fully reflected in the stats since he has played in 5 of the last 8 games.

Shae Gilgeous-Alexander is out for the Thunder. This is the first game he has missed and his absence won’t be reflected in the stats. Thunder may lack offense without him on the court.

Marcus Smart is out for the second straight game, his absence wont be reflected in the stats.

Aldridge is out for the the Spurs. This is the first game he has missed so his impact won’t be reflected in the stats.

Devin Booker is projected to play, but has missed 4 of the the last 8 which may Skew the Suns stats.

Jimmy Butler has played in just 2 of the last 8 games for the Heat, which may skew the teams stats. Herro has played in 3 of 8 and Dragic 5 of 8.

*Kemba Walker is out tonight.

*Russell Westbrook is out tonight.

Sharp Report

Early Money

ATS – Early Sharp money has come in on the Knicks (+4) and Timberwolves (+9).

O/U – Early Sharp money has come in on the Wolves/Spurs Over (223) and Rockets/Thunder Under (223.5).

Mid Day

ATS – Sharp money has come in on the Knicks (+3), Hornets (+7.5), Heat (-8), and Cavs (+9).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Wizards/Heat Under (229.5) and 76ers/Hornets Over (221.5). Some small money has come in on the Knicks/Bulls Under (216.5) & Mavs/Hawks Over (222.5).

Late Afternoon

ATS – There was some buy back on the Bucks moving the line back to where it started at -7.5. Sharp money came in on the Mavs throughout the day, gradually moving them from +1.5 to -1.5. Some late sharp money came in on the Kings (+2.5).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Celtics/Kings Under (225.5).

Model Projections

1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 60% ATS, 58% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

2. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 54% ATS, 61% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

3. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

Record

Record: 52% ATS, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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