NBA Line Projections – 6 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Team Consistency Update

Somebody asked about each teams Variance so I thought I’d post an update.

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance, Standard Deviation (Std Dev), Ave Score for the season, average score over the last 8 games, and a Trending value. The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Nuggets score (typically) will deviate about 6.72 points from there average on a given night, where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 17.87 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities. The Trending value is an indication of if a team is scoring more points over the last 8 game than there season average. If they are averaging more points over the last 8 than their season average, the trending value will be positive, if the are averaging less than their season average, the trending value will be negative.

Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. Random Forest – 57%
  2. kNN – 56%
  3. Neural Net – 56%
  4. Ada Boost – 53%
  5. Basic Model – 51%
  6. Linear Regression – 51%
  7. SVM – 49%
  8. SGD – 46%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Raptors (Brkln to Atl), Pelicans (Ind to NO), Pistons (Pho to LA), Nets (Brkln to Phi). Bucks @ Cavs, Bulls @ Magic, and T-Wolves @ Thunder are all playing for the second straight night.

Lillard appears to be a go tonight for the Blazers, but Nurkic and McCollum are still out. They have missed 8 games each so the stats do reflect their absences.

Jamal Murray appears to be a game time decision for the Nuggets. If he misses, his absence will not be reflected in the stats.

Lauri Markkanen appears to be doubtful for today’s game for the Bulls. His absence will not be reflected in the stats.

Aaron Gordon is out again for the Magic, his absence will not be reflected in the stats.

Trae Young is questionable for the Hawks after missing last game with an injury. If he can’t go, his impact will not be reflected in the stats.

Lamarcus Aldridge will miss a second straight game for the Spurs. His absence will not be reflected in the stats.

Christian Wood is out and John Wall is Questionable for the Rockets. Neither of their absences (should Wall not go) will be reflected in the stats.

Kevin Durant is in COVID protocol and will miss a few games for the Nets. his absence will not be reflected in the stats.

Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are both questionable. If either (or both) should miss the game, their absence will not be reflected in the stats.

KAT may make his return for the Wolves tonight. If he returns, his impact on the floor will not be reflected in the stats.

Gilgeous-Alexander may make his return after missing a few games. His impact should he miss will not be fully reflected in the stats.

Wiseman and Looney are both out for the Warriors for the 3rd straight game. Their impacts wont be fully reflected in the stats.

Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data up this morning.

ATS – Sharp money has come in on the Kings (+4) and Grizzlies (+2)

O/U – Sharp money has come in on the Nuggets/Kings Under (230).

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hawks (+6), 76ers (-2), Thunder (+1), & Bucks (-10).

O/U – Some Sharpe money has come in on the Nets/76ers Under (237.5), Grizzlies/Pelicans Over (225), & Blazers/Knicks Under (215).

Late Afternoon

No late report today.

Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 53% ATS, 60% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

2. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 58% ATS, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

3. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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