As always, keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

## Team Consistency Update

Somebody asked about each teams Variance so I thought I’d post an update.

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance, Standard Deviation (Std Dev), Ave Score for the season, average score over the last 8 games, and a Trending value. The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Nuggets score (typically) will deviate about 6.72 points from there average on a given night, where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 17.87 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities. The Trending value is an indication of if a team is scoring more points over the last 8 game than there season average. If they are averaging more points over the last 8 than their season average, the trending value will be positive, if the are averaging less than their season average, the trending value will be negative.

## Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

#### ATS Record

#### O/U Record

#### Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

- Random Forest – 57%
- kNN – 57%
- Neural Net – 55%
- Ada Boost – 53%
- Basic Model – 51%
- Linear Regression – 51%
- SVM – 49%
- SGD – 46%

## Summary of Projections

#### ATS Projections

#### O/U Projections

## Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Knicks (Home), Kings (Sac to LA).

Paul George is out for the Clippers. His impact will not be reflected in the stats.

Nurkic and McCollum still out for Blazers, but they have missed enought time for the stats to account for their absence.

Mike Conley is out for the Jazz, His absence will not be reflected in the stats.

Jaylen Bronw and Marcus Smart are out for the Celtics, Neither of their absences will be reflected in the stats.

Jae Crowder is out for the second straight game for the suns. his absence will not be reflected in the stats.

## Sharp Report

#### Early Money

No Noticeable Sharp action this morning.

#### Mid Day

ATS – Sharp money has come in on the Hornets (+2.5).

O/U – Sharp money has come in on the Heat/Knicks Under (212.5), Celtics/Suns Under (219), and Clippers/Kings Under (230.5).

#### Late Afternoon

No late report today.

# Model Projections

## 1. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

#### Record

Record: 53% ATS, 60% O/U.

##### ATS

##### O/U

#### Model Projections

#### Betting Edge

## 2. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

#### Record

Record: 56% ATS, 57% O/U.

##### ATS

##### O/U

#### Model Projections

#### Betting Edge

## 3. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

#### Record

Record: 52% ATS, 58% O/U.