As always, keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Models have struggled with ATS recently, but have been good with Over/Under projections.

## Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

#### ATS Record

#### O/U Record

#### Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

- Random Forest – 57%
- kNN – 57%
- Neural Net – 55%
- Ada Boost – 53%
- Basic Model – 52%
- Linear Regression – 51%
- SVM – 49%
- SGD – 47%

## Summary of Projections

#### ATS Projections

#### O/U Projections

## Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Rockets (Cha to NO), Warriors @ Spurs for the second straight game.

Kevin Durant is still in COVID protocol, he has only missed 1 game, his impact will not be reflected in the stats.

*D-Rose won’t play for the Knicks tonight. Detroit traded D-Rose to the Knicks. His absence form the Pistons and impact for the Knicks will not be reflected in the stats.

Wood is out for the 3rd game for the Rockets, HIs absence wont be reflected in the stats.

Oladipo has usually sat out the second night of the back to back, his absence wont be reflected in the stats should he sit tonight.

The Warriors are still whiteout their 2 big men, Wiseman and Looney. This is the 4th and 3rd game they have missed respectively, their absence will be somewhat reflected in the stats.

Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier are out for the 4th and 2nd straight game respectively. Their absences will not be reflected in the stats.

Nurkic and McCollum are still out for the Blazers, but they have been out long enough that the Blazers stats have accounted for their absence.

Marcus Smart is out for the 5th straight game for the Celtics, his absence will be somewhat reflected in the stats.

Jaylen Brown is considered a game time decision for the Celtics. If he can’t go his absence wont be reflected in the stats.

Mike Conley is out for the second straight game for the Jazz. His absence wont be reflected in the stats.

## Sharp Report

#### Early Money

Not a lot of betting data is available.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Warriors/Spurs under (233) & 76ers/Kings Over (229.5).

#### Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp action on the Jazz (-4), Pistons (+9), Pelicans (-4), & Knicks (+8).

O/U – Some Sharp action on the Nets/Pistons Under (232.5) & Magic/Blazers Under (224.5)

#### Late Afternoon

No noticeable late Sharp action.

# Model Projections

## 1. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

#### Record

Record: 52% ATS, 62% O/U.

##### ATS

##### O/U

#### Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

#### Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

## 2. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

#### Record

Record: 55% ATS, 58% O/U.

##### ATS

##### O/U

#### Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

#### Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

## 3. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

#### Record

Record: 50% ATS, 59% O/U.

##### ATS

##### O/U

#### Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

#### Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.