NBA Line Projections – 10 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries and COVID Issues. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. Random Forest – 57%
  2. kNN – 57%
  3. Neural Net – 55%
  4. Ada Boost – 53%
  5. Basic Model – 52%
  6. Linear Regression – 51%
  7. SVM – 49%
  8. SGD – 48%

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Nets (Det to Bkn) & Pelicans (NO to Chi).

LAC/MIN: Paul George is out for the third straight game for the Clippers, his absence wont be reflected in the stats.

IND/BKN: Kevin Durant is out for the third straight game, his absence wont be reflected in the stats. Brooklyn Nets Defense has struggled all season, even more so when KD is off the floor.

NOP/CHI: : Lauri Markannen is out for the third straight game for the Bulls, his absence wont be reflected in the stats.

OKC/LAL: Shae Gilgeous Alexander appears to be out for the Thunder, the offense has struggled in his absence. His absence wont be reflected in the stats. Anthony Davis is also questionable for the Lakers and may miss the second straight game. Lakers have really played down to the competition lately barely beating or losing to some bad teams.

MIL/PHO: Jrue Holiday is out for the second straight game for the Bucks, his absence wont be reflected in the stats. Bucks offense struggled at times last game without him. Chris Paul is a game time decision for the Suns after missing last game. if he can’t go his impact wont be reflected in the stats.

*DeAngelo Russell is now out for the Wolves, his absence wont be reflected in the stats.

Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data is available.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bucks (-4).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hawks/Mavs Under (233.5), Hornets/Grizzlies Under (226), Cavs/Nuggets Under (225), & Pelicans/Bulls Under (231)

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pacers (+2), Clippers (-9), Bulls (+3), and Lakers (-10.5). Some Sharp buy back on the Suns has also come in pushing the line back to the +4 open.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Clippers/Wolves Under (226.5).

Late Afternoon

Not much noticeable late Sharp action.

ATS – Some buyback on the Clippers driving the line back to -9.

Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 53% ATS, 62% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

2. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 55% ATS, 58% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

3. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 59% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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