Hope you all can get something useful from this and, as always, best of luck everyone!
Updated projections with latest model on 5 Feb 2021. Latest model includes Corsi, Fenwick, & High Danger stats.
New models have struggled with Over/Under projections but have crushed Moneyline Projections.
Top Performing Models
Based on Average Win % between ATS, Moneyline, and O/U.
Updated after todays games.
- kNN – 61%
- Random Forest – 56%
- SVM – 55%
- Ada Boost – 54%
- Neural Network – 54%
- Linear Regression – 49%
Summary of Projections
1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)
The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 26 Neighbors.
How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”. The “ML prob” is the probability of a team to cover the moneyline, or the outright winner.
If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value.