NBA Line Projections – 16 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

*No promises on a post tomorrow, rolling blackouts, internet outages, potential water outages here in the great state of Texas. Hopefully I don’t have issues in the morning! Best of luck everybody!

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Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. Random Forest – 57%
  2. Neural Net – 56%
  3. kNN – 54%
  4. Ada Boost – 54%
  5. Basic Model – 53%
  6. SVM – 49%
  7. Linear Regression – 48%
  8. SGD – 47%
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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Nets (Sac to Pho).

Denver/Boston: The Nuggets are facing some injury issues with Barton and Millsap (among others) out for todays game, their absences will not be reflected in the stats. Marcus Smart is out, but also has missed the last 8 games, his absence will be reflected in the stats. Nuggets are 6-4 in the last 10, Boston is 3-7 in that same span. Boston is 4-6 ATS and to the over in the last 10. The Nuggets are 5-5 ATS and 7-3 to the over.

Raptors/Bucks: The Bucks are still without Jrue Holiday who has missed the last 4 games. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Both teams ar 5-5 straight up and ATS in the last 10. Raptors are 8-2 to the over and Bucks are 7-3 to the over in the last 10.

Lakers/Wolves: Anthony Davis went down with an injury last game and will be out for a while. his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Russell has missed 4 of the last 8 and is still out, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. KAT is playing in his 4th game since returning from injury, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. Lakers are 7-3 straight up in the last 10, but just 3-7 ATS. Meanwhile the Wolves are 3-7 straight up but 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10. Lakers are 5-5 to the over while the Wolves are 4-6.

Blazers/Thunder: Shae Gilgeous-Alexander has missed 5 of the last 8 games, his absence should be mostly reflected in the stats. Nurkic and McCollum are still out for the Blazers, but their absences are fully reflected in the Blazers stats. Blazers have been playing well going 7-3 straight up in the last 10, 8-2 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10. The Thunder have been just 4-6 straight up, but 6-3-1 ATS and 5-5 to the over in the last 10.

Pelicans/Grizzlies: Grizzlies players are slowly returning from injury and COVID protocol, but their absence’s hasn’t stopped the Grizz from playing fairly well. Both Pelicans and Grizzlies are 5-5 Straight and ATS in the last 10 game. They are both also 7-2-1 to the over in the last 10.

Nets/Suns: Kevin Durant is still out for the Nets. He has missed 4 of the last 8 and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Suns have been on fire lately going 9-1 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Nets have gone 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10.

*Daniel Thies is now out for the Celtics, his absence wont be reflected in the stats.

*Kyrie Irving is now out tonight.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data is available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Raptors (+6.5) & Suns (-2).

Mid Day

ATS – Sharp money has come in on the Pelicans (+1.5), Thunder (+7.5), & Wolves (+7, small).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Blazers/Thunder under (225.5, small), & Nuggets/Celtics Under (222).

Late Afternoon

No late report today, fixing broken pipes because Texas is freezing.

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 61% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 60% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 53% ATS, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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