NBA Line Projections – 17 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

*No promises on a post tomorrow, rolling blackouts, internet outages, potential water outages here in the great state of Texas. Hopefully I don’t have issues in the morning! Best of luck everybody!

*Blazers and Thunder are having travel issues today. Expect late travel and arrival to the games. Could effect their play.

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Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. Random Forest – 56%
  2. Neural Net – 56%
  3. kNN – 54%
  4. Ada Boost – 54%
  5. Basic Model – 53%
  6. SVM – 48%
  7. Linear Regression – 48%
  8. SGD – 47%
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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Wolves (Home), Celtics (Home), Blazers (OKC to NO), Pelicans (Mem to NO), Nuggets (Bos to Was), Thunder (OKC to Mem), Grizzlies (Home).

Knicks/Magic: Mitchell Robinson is out for the Knicks after missing the last 2 games, his absence won’t be reflected in the stats. The Magic are still without Aaron Gordon who has missed the last 7, although the stats should reflect his absence. Evan Fournier is a game time decision today after missing the last 5 games. If he goes, his impact wont be reflected in the stats, if he doesnt go his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Bottom line, the Magic offense has struggled with Fournier off the floor. Vucevic should thrive with the Knicks big man out. Knicks are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10. Magic are 2-8 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10.

Hawks/Celtics: Marcus Smart is still out for the Celtics, although he has missed enough time that his impact should be reflected in the stats. Thies missed last game with an injury and is a game time decision tonight, if he cant go his absence wont be reflected in the stats. Hawks are jus 2-8 straight up in their last 10, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over. Celtics are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over.

*Kemba Walker and Thies are both out tonight.

Rockets/76ers: Wood is still out, and now Oladipo and Eric Gordon are doubtful. Wood has missed the last 6 games so his absence should be reflected in the stats, Oladipo and Gordon’s absence will not be reflected in the stats. Rockets offense has struggled without Wood in the lineup and now two of their key scorers are doubtful. Rockets are just 3-7 in the last 10 both straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over. 76ers are 6-4 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over.

*Ben Simmons is now out for the 76ers

Pistons/Bulls: Griffin is out for the second straight game for the Pistons, his absence wont be reflected in the stats. Markannen has missed the last 5, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. both teams are 4-6 straight up in the last 10, and 5-5 to the over. the Pistons are 6-4 ATS, while the Bulls are 4-6 ATS.

Pacers/Wolves: The Wolves are going to miss Russel for a few more weeks. He has missed 5 of the last 8, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. KAT has returned and played in the last 4 games, his impact will be partially reflected in the stats, the Wolves are averaging 111pts since his return, but just 1-3 in those 4 games. Both teams are just 3-7 in the last 10 games. The Pacers are 3-7 ATS and 5-5 to the over. the Wolves are 7-2-1 ATS and 4-6 to the over.

Nuggets/Wizards: The Nuggets injuries are starting to mount with Millsap, Barton, Morris, & Harris all facing injuries which are not going to be reflected in the stats. The Nuggets offense struggled mightily with Jokic and Murray off the court yesterday and the defense gave up a lot of wide open three’s (Celtics didn’t take full advantage of them until late). If the crew above cant go, I expect more of the same issues for Denver, focusing on Millsap and Barton as the two biggest factors out of the 4. Both teams are 5-5 straight up in the last 10. Nuggets are 4-6 ATS and 6-4 to the over. Wizards are 5-5 ATS and 4-6 to the over.

*Millsap and Barton are now officially out.

Blazers/Pelicans: There aren’t any injuries that aren’t accounted for in the stats. The Blazers are a blistering 8-2 straight up and ATS, and 7-3 to the over. The Pelicans are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 7-2-1 to the over.

Thunder/Grizzlies: Shae Gilgeous-Alexander has missed 6 of the last 8 for the Thunder, his absence should be mostly reflected in the stats. The offense has averaged just 105.5 PPG when he hasn’t played. Thunder are 3-7 Straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10. Grizzlies are 4-6 Straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 8-1-1 to the Over in the last 10.

*Gilgeous-Alexander is a go, but Al Horford is out now.

Heat/Warriors: Wiseman and Looney are still both out for the Warriors leaving Draymond as the lone “Big Man.” Their absences are reflected in the stats, but Adebayo could take advantage of the Warriors limited size, even though Draymond is a good defender. The Heat are 5-5 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10. The Warriors are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10.

Jazz/Clippers: Paul George is out and has missed the the last 6 games for the Clippers, his abscene should be mostly reflected in the stats. Kawhi has missed the last 2 games and is questionable for tonight after missing the last 2 games, if he cant go, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Jazz are hot, going 9-1 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10. the Clippers are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Forgot about Mike Conley for the Jazz. He has missed the last 5 games due to injury and is considered a game time decision for tonight. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

No betting data is available this morning.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Wolves (+7) & Pistons (+4.5).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Knicks/Magic Under (210.5, small), Pacers/Wolves Under (227.5), Pistons/Bulls Under (223.5), & Heat/Warriors Under (224.5).

Late Afternoon

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hawks/Celtics Under (224).

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

[Nerd Talk] Best performance is capped at about 50 trees, anything more than that and the processing time/power required for a very minor improvement increases exponentially.

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 61% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Neural Network (NN)

[Nerd Talk] The activation function for this 100 layer NN is a linear function. The solver is an SGD.

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 61% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

The lazy learner (That’s what my grad school prof called it). Nearest Neighbor has performed best with 30 Neighbors.

Record

Record: 53% ATS, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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