NBA Line Projections – 18 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

*No promises on a post tomorrow, rolling blackouts, internet outages, potential water outages here in the great state of Texas. Hopefully I don’t have issues in the morning! Best of luck everybody!

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Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. Neural Net – 55%
  2. Random Forest – 55%
  3. Ada Boost – 53%
  4. kNN – 53%
  5. Basic Model – 52%
  6. SVM – 48%
  7. Linear Regression – 48%
  8. SGD – 46%
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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Heat (SF to Sac).

Raptors/Bucks: Jrue Holiday remains out for the Bucks, he has missed the last 5 games. His absence will be somewhat reflected in the stats. Kyle Lowry is considered a game time decision, if he can’t go his impact will not be reflected in the stats. This is the second straight game between these two teams, with the Raptors winning 124-113 two days ago. The season series between these two is tied at 1-1. The Raptors are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 9-1 to the over in the last 10. The bucks are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 7-3 to the over.

Nets/Lakers: Kevin Durant remains out after missing the 5 of the last 8 games. his absence will be somewhat reflected in the stats. Kyrie Irving returns after missing the last game for the Nets. Anthony Davis will remain out for a while, but has only missed 3 of the last 8, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Nets are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10. The Lakers are 8-2 straight up, but just 4-6 ATS and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Kings: Harrison Barnes is out tonight for the kings, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Miami won the last meeting between these two, 105-104. Both the Heat and Kings are 5-5 straight up in the last 10. Kings are 6-4 ATS and to the over. Heat are 3-7 ATS and 4-6 to the over in the last 10.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

No betting data is available this morning.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Kings (+3).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Nets/Lakers Under (237.5).

Late Afternoon

Sorry yall, work got crazy. No late sharp report today.

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 60% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 60% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost)

Record

Record: 54% ATS, 51% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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