NBA Line Projections – 19 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Advertisements

Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. Neural Net – 55%
  2. Random Forest – 55%
  3. Ada Boost – 53%
  4. kNN – 53%
  5. Basic Model – 52%
  6. SVM – 48%
  7. Linear Regression – 48%
  8. SGD – 46%
Advertisements

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Advertisements

Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Raptors (Tor to Min) & Bucks (Tor to Mil).

Nuggets/Cavs: The Nuggets have some recent injuries including Millsap and Barton. These injuries will not be reflected in the stats. The Cavs have benched Drummond in anticipation of a trade and are without Taureen Prince due to injury. Their absences will not be reflected in the stats. The Cavs offense is averaging 99 points per game in games Drummond hasn’t played, allowing 118 points per game in those same games. Last time these two played the Nuggets routed the Cavs 133-95. The Nuggets are just 4-6 in the last 10, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over. The Cavs are miserable as of late, going 1-9 in their last 10, including 3-7 ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over.

Warriors/Magic: Wiseman has missed significant time for the warriors and Gordon has missed significant time for the Magic. Both of their absences will be reflected in the stats. Fournier missed 5 of the last 8 games and appears to be a go tonight, his impact will be mostly not reflected in the stats. Draymond Green has filled the big man role with Wideman and Looney out for the Warriors, but he carries a “questionable” designator going into tonight’s game. If Green can’t go, 2nd year player Toscano-Anderson will take on the daunting defensive task of containing Vucevic. These two played last week with the Warriors winning 111-105. The Warriors are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over. The Magic are 3-7 straight up in the last 10, and 4-6 ATS and to the over.

Hawks/Celtics: Jaylen Brown is questionable for tonight’s game. If he can’t go, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Marcus Smart has missed sufficient time and his absence is reflected in the Celtics stats. The Celtics played the Hawks a couple of days ago and fell 122-114. The Celtics are just 4-6 straight up and ATS in the last 10, and 5-5 to the over. The Hawks are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over.

Bulls/76ers: Markannen has missed the last 6 games and will remain out for a while. His absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Ben Simmons returns after missing last game with an illness. The Bulls are 5-5 Straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over. The 76ers are 6-4 Straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over.

Suns/Pelicans: Steven Adams is listed as doubtful for the Pelicans, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The season series between these two teams is tied at 1-1. The Suns are 8-2 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over. The Pelicans are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 7-2-1 to the over.

Thunder/Bucks: Jrue Holiday remains in COVID protocols and has missed the last 6 games. His absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. The Bucks are just 1-5 in the 6 games Holiday has missed. Thunder won the last meeting 114-109.The Bucks are 2-2 on the second night of a back to back. The Thunder are just 3-7 straight up in the last 10, but 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over. The Bucks are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10.

Pistons/Grizzlies: Blake Griffin remains out for the Pistons after missing the last 2 games, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Pistons are 2-6 in games Griffin has missed this season. Dillon Brooks is considered a game time decision for today’s game. If he cant go, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Pistons are 4-6 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the under in the last 10. The Grizzlies are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 8-1-1 to the over.

Raptors/Wolves: Kyle Lowry is Doubtful tonight after missing last nights game. His absence will not be reflected in the stats. DeAngelo Russell is still out and has missed 6 of the last 8 games, his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. KAT has returned and played in the last 5 games for the Wolves, his impact will be somewhat reflected in the stats. These 2 teams played earlier this week with Minnesota winning 116-112. Raptors are 0-3 on the second night of a back to back. The Raptors are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10. The Wolves are 2-8 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10.

Jazz/Clippers: Paul George has missed 7 straight games and is considered questionable tonight for the Clippers. if he does play, his impact will not be reflected in the stats, and if her doesn’t play his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Kawhi is also questionable after missing the last 3 games. His impact will be 3/8 reflected if he misses and 5/8 reflected if he plays. Mike Conley is questionable tonight for the Jazz, if he plays his impact will not be reflected in the stats, if he doesn’t his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. These 2 teams met a couple days ago with the Jazz winning 114-96, the season series is tied 1-1. The Jazz are 9-1 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10. the Clippers are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10.

Advertisements

Sharp Report

Early Money

No a lot of betting data is available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pistons (+8).

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bulls (+9.5), Nuggets (-8), Suns (-1), Thunder (+11.5), & Wolves (+3.5).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pistons/Grizzlies Under (221) & Raptors/Wolves Under (231.5).

Late Afternoon

ATS – Some late Sharp action has come in on the Jazz (-5), Celtics (-3.5), & Toronto (-2.5).

O/U – Some Late Sharp action on the Bulls/76ers Under (229.5).

Advertisements

Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 60% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Advertisements

2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 60% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Advertisements

3. Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost)

Record

Record: 54% ATS, 51% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s