NBA Line Projections – 20 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

*Models have been terrible ATS the last 2-3 weeks. I have had models go through cold streaks, but the performance recently has subpar for more than just a cold streak. I will be making modifications to the models over the weekend to see if I can make them perform better, but will not be posting the models I am experimenting with. If I can get significant improvement I will move forward with the updated models.

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Team Consistency Update

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance, Standard Deviation (Std Dev), Ave Score for the season, average score over the last 8 games, and a Trending value. Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the last 15 games (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The 76ers score (typically) will deviate about 6.11 points from there average on a given night (Last 15), where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 20.95 points from their average on a given night (Last 15). Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities. The Trending value is an indication of if a team is scoring more points over the last 8 game than there season average. If they are averaging more points over the last 8 than their season average, the trending value will be positive, if the are averaging less than their season average, the trending value will be negative.

Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. Neural Net – 55%
  2. Random Forest – 54%
  3. Ada Boost – 53%
  4. kNN – 53%
  5. Basic Model – 52%
  6. SVM – 48%
  7. Linear Regression – 48%
  8. SGD – 46%
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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Bulls (Phi to Chi), Grizzlies (Home), Suns (NO to Mem), Warriors (Orl to Char).

Warriors/Hornets: Devonte Graham is out for the Hornets, he has missed 3 of the last 8. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Warriors are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over in the last 10. The Hornets are 6-4 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Lakers: Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder are both out for the Lakers. Davis has missed 4 of the last 8, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Schroder has only missed 1 game, so his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Lakers offense struggled without both Davis and Schroder last game, scoring just 98 points against a poor Brooklyn defense. The Heat are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Lakers are 8-2 straight up, but just 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Bulls: Barnes, Holmes, and Robinson are all game time decisions for the Kings. If any or all can’t go, their impacts will not be reflected in the stats. Markannen has missed the last 7 and will remain out tonight, his absence will be pretty much fully reflected in the stats. Sacramento won the last game between these two teams 128-124 (Markannen missed that game too). Kings are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10. The Bulls are 5-5 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Suns/Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks missed yesterdays game and is considered a game time decision today. If he can’t go, his impact wont be reflected in the stats. The Suns have played 6 back to back so fare this year and are an incredible 5-1 on the second night of the back to back. Chris Paul has sat out 1 of those 6 back to backs. Memphis beat the Suns last time these teams played, 108-104. Suns have been hot lately, going 8-2 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Grizzlies are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 7-2-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Blazers: Blazers have been playing extremely well despite being without Nurkic and McCollum for significant amount of time. The Wizards are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Blazers are 8-2 straight up and ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

No a lot of betting data is available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Heat (+5).

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Suns (-3, small) & Bulls (+2.5).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Heat/Lakers Under (214).

Late Afternoon

Got busy and lost track of time, my apologies.

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 59% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 59% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost)

Record

Record: 54% ATS, 51% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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