NBA Line Projections – 24 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Here is how the models have been performing.

ATS Record

O/U Record

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. Neural Net – 53%
  2. Random Forest – 34%
  3. Ada Boost – 52%
  4. kNN – 52%
  5. Basic Model – 51%
  6. SVM – 48%
  7. Linear Regression – 48%
  8. SGD – 46%
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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Warriors (NY to Ind), T-Wolves (Mil to Chi), Celtics (Dal to Atl), Hawks (Cle to Atl), Cavs (Home), Raptors (Tampa to Mia), & Pistons (Orl to NO).

Celtics/Hawks: There aren’t any injuries the stats haven’t accounted for. Both teams are on the second night of a back to back. Kemba Walker has yet to play in the second night of a back to back and the Celtics have dropped 3 straight on the second night of a back to back (3-3 on the season). The Hawks are 0-5 on the second night of the back to back averaging 106 PPG compared to 113 PPG season average. The Celtics are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over the last 10 games. The Hawks are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10. The season series is tied 1-1.

*Kemba Walker is officially out.

Rockets/Cavs: Oladipo has missed 5 of the last 6 games and is considered questionable tonight. Whether he does or doesn’t play, his impact will be partially reflected in the stats, more so if he doesn’t play. The rockets are 0-5 in games when both Oladipo and Wood have missed. Eric Gordon is also listed as questionable today. The Cavs finally broke the losing streak, but Drummond remains out as they try to trade him. He has missed the last 5 games, his impact will be somewhat reflected in the stats. The Cavaliers are 2-5 on the second night of a back to back, averaging 100.5 PPG compared to 104 PPG season average. The rockets are 1-9 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Cavs are 1-9 straight up and ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10.

Warriors/Pacers: Wiseman and Looney are both not listed on the injury report for the Warriors, if they play their impacts will not be reflected in the stats. After returning yesterday I don’t anticipate seeing them tonight on the back to back and if they do play their minutes will likely be restricted. The Pacers have not played in 7 days, it’ll be interesting to see how the rest vs. rust effects them with the long layoff. The Warriors are5-5 straight up and ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pacers are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pistons/Pelicans: Blake Griffin has missed 5 straight games while the Pistons try to trade him, his absence will be somewhat reflected in the stats. Delon Wright is out for the 3rd straight game for the Pistons, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Pistons are 2-4 on the second night of a back to back. The Pistons are 4-6 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pelicans are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 8-1-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Jerami Grant is out for the Pistons.

Wolves/Bulls: All injuries have been accounted for in the stats. The Wolves looked abysmal in there first game under their new head coach, although it was against a stout Bucks team. The Wolves are 2-4 on the second night of a back to back. The Wolves are 1-9 straight up, 3-6-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bulls are 6-4 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Raptors/Heat: Kyle Lowry has missed 4 games for the Raptors and is listed as probable to return today. His impact will be partially reflected in the stats. The Raptors are 1-4 on the second night of a back to back. The Raptors are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Heat are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The season series is tied at 1-1.

Spurs: Spurs have a load of people out due to COVID protocols, including Derozan. Adlrisge is listed as a game time decision for the spurs as well after missing 6 straight, his impact will not be reflected in the stats if he plays. The Spurs have not played in 7 days and now we have the rest vs rust debate after the long layoff. The Spurs are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Thunder are 3-7 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10. Spurs beat the Thunder last time these teams met, 112-102.

Hornets/Suns: Gordon Hayward is listed as a game time decision today, if he cant go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Suns have been one of the hottest teams in basketball lately, with the only loss in the last 10 games coming against a good Nets team, when they led by double digits to start the fourth quarter. The Suns are 6-1 on the second night of a back to back this season. The Hornets are 5-5 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Suns are 9-1 straight up and ATS in the last 10, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Lakers/Jazz: Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder remain out for the Lakers. Davis has missed 6 of 8 and his absence should be mostly accounted for in the stats. Schroder has missed the last 3 and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Lakers are 0-3 in the games both players have missed averaging 102 PPG in regulation, in those games compared to their 112 PPG average. The Jazz have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA lately covering the spread something like 17 of the last 19 games (heard it on the radio). The Lakers are 6-4 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Jazz are 9-1 straight up and ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data is available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Warriors (+4) & Jazz (-6.5).

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Rockets (-3, small), Hawks (+2.5), & Suns (-9.5, small)

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Celtics/Hawks Under (227.5) & Hornets/Suns Under (225.5, small).

Late Afternoon

No noticeable late Sharp action.

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost)

Record

Record: 52% ATS, 52% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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