NBA Line Projections – 25 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS, ML, and O/U.

  1. Neural Net – 53%
  2. Random Forest – 53%
  3. Ada Boost – 52%
  4. kNN – 52%
  5. Basic Model – 51%
  6. SVM – 48%
  7. Linear Regression – 48%
  8. SGD – 46%
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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average.

Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Pelicans (NO to Mil).

Mavs/76ers: Porzingis has missed the last 2 games and Maxi Kleber missed last game for the Mavs. Both are considered a game time decision for tonight’s game, if they can’t go their absences wont be reflected in the stats. The Mavericks are 7-3 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The 76ers are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10.

Magic/Nets: Kevin Durant remains out and has now missed 7 of the last 8 games, his absence will be reflected in the stats. The Nets won the first meeting between these two teams 122-115. The Magic are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Nets are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Knicks: Whiteside is out for the second straight game for the Kings, his absence won’t be reflected in the stats. Mitchell Robinson is out for the 6th straight game for the Knicks, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Elfrid Payton is also listed as a game time decision, if he doesn’t go, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Kings won the first meeting between these two, 103-94. The Kings have struggled lately losing 8 straight and going 2-8 straight up and ATS, and are 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. The Knicks are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Clippers/Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks has missed 3 straight games and is listed as a game time decision tonight. If he cant go his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Grizzlies have struggled offensively in the 3 games Brooks has missed, averaging 99 PPG as compared to their season average of 110 PPG. The Clippers are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-3-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Grizzlies are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 7-2-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Nuggets: Denver is still having injury issues, including starter Paul Millsap who has missed the last 5 games. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Nuggets are 2-3 in Millsap’s absence. Wizards are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Nuggets are 5-5 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10.

Pelicans/Bucks: The Bucks finally seem to be recovering from the Jrue Holiday Injury. When Holiday went down the Bucks started 1-5, but have now won 3 straight (Holiday remains out). It should be noted those 3 wins are against OKC, Sac, and Min, so not the stiffest competition. The Pelicans have been an over machine the last 15 games. The Pelicans are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 9-0-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bucks are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data is available this morning. No noticeable Sharp Action from what’s available.

Mid Day

ATS – There was a large swing in the 76ers/Mavs line to the 76ers. I haven’t seen any news about Porzingis and there isn’t any betting data on that game so I’m not sure why the line move. My guess is there is anticipation or inside info that Porzingis is out and the line moved before the news is official. Some Small Sharp money has come in on the Clippers (-7.5).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bucks/Pelicans Over (240).

Late Afternoon

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pelicans (+9)

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Clippers/Grizzlies Under (225.5) & Kings/Knicks Over (222.5),

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost)

Record

Record: 52% ATS, 52% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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