NBA Line Projectsions – 26 Feb 21

As always, keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS, ML, and O/U.

  1. Neural Net – 53%
  2. Random Forest – 53%
  3. Ada Boost – 52%
  4. kNN – 52%
  5. Basic Model – 51%
  6. SVM – 48%
  7. Linear Regression – 48%
  8. SGD – 46%
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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average.

Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Kings (NY to Det) & Clippers @ Grizzlies for the second straight night.

Pacers/Celtics: Neither team has any injuries that aren’t reflected in the stats. Pacers returned to action 2 days ago after a 7 day layoff thanks to Covid protocols. The Celtics are 5-9 since Marcus Smart went down with an injury. The Pacers are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Celtics are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10. The season series between these two is tied at 1-1.

Rockets/Raptors: Oladipo missed 5 of the last 8 games and is a go tonight, his impact will be partially reflected in the stats. Lowry has missed 4 of the last 8 games and will play again tonight, his impact will also be partially reflected in the stats. The Rockets have been dreadful since Wood went down with an injury, going 0-9, averaging 6 PPG less than their average, and allowing 7PPG more than their season average. The Rockets are 1-9 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Raptors are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

*5 coaches, including head coach Nick Nurse, won’t be available tonight due to Covid Protocols

*Pascal Siakam is now out for the Raptors

Suns/Bulls: There aren’t any injuries that aren’t accounted for in the stats. The Suns have been hot lately, only losing 2 of the last 10 games, with both losses coming when leading by 24 and 17 in the third quarter (maybe an in play opportunity going forward). The Suns are 8-2 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. The Bulls are 7-3 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Pistons: Delon Wright is out for the fourth straight game for the Pistons, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Saddiq Bay is also listed as questionable for the Pistons. Whiteside missed yesterday’s game due to COVID protocols, if he cant go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Kings are 1-5 on the second night of a back to back and have struggled recently going 1-9 straight up and ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pistons are 4-6 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Jazz/Heat: Bam Adebayo is listed as a game time decision for today’s game, if he can’t go is absence will not be reflected in the stats. Tyler Herro is listed as a game time decision for todays game after missing the last 2 game, if he cant go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Jazz are 9-1 straight up and ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Heat are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hawks/Thunder: Al Horford is listed as out for todays game, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Hawks are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 9-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The thunder are 3-7 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Clippers/Grizzlies: These two teams played yesterday and the Grizzlies routed the Clippers. The Grizzlies are a much better offensive team when Dillon Brooks plays and are 2-2 on the second night of the back to back. The Clippers are 7-3 following a loss and 5-0 on the second night of a back to back. The Clippers are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Grizzlies are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hornets/Warriors: Devonte Graham will miss his 4th straight and 6th of the last 8 games. his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. The Warriors and Hornets played last weekend, Steph Curry went to the locker room right when the game tipped and a late meltdown by Draymond Green allowed the Hornets to come back from a 5 point deficit with 1:25 left in the game and win it in regulation 102-100. Wiseman and Looney also did not play in that game. The Hornets are 5-5 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Warriors are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Blazers/Lakers: Anthony Davis has missed 6 of the last 8 and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Schroder returns for the Lakers after missing 4 straight, his impact will be partially reflected in the stats. The Lakers offense struggled without both AD and Schroder on the floor, but I expect that to change at least a little bit with Schroder back, his driving ability is something the Lakers have missed. The Blazers are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Lakers are 5-5 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data is available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Warriors (-6), Pacers (+4), Rockets (+8), Pistons (+3), & Lakers (-4.5).

Mid Day

ATS – Some Buyback came in on the Hornets (+7), Raptors (-7.5), and Kings (-1). Some Sharp money has come in on the Jazz (-5.5) & Hawks (-3.5).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Clippers/Grizzlies Under (228) & Blazers/Lakers Over (220.5)

Late Afternoon

No Noticeable late Sharp action.

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 53% ML, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 53% ML, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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4 comments

      1. I will continue to post model #3, just had an early meeting and cut the corner by excluding it today so I didn’t have to rush to work, and hoped nobody would notice I excluded it. Sorry about that.

        Like

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