NBA Line Projections – 28 Feb 21

[Posted yesterday, keeping it here until Monday’s post] To all of those following along and leveraging this data, I want to apologize for the recent bad run and for any money you lost on my behalf. I could not understand why the new model was performing so poorly when it was running well in trials, so I dove into the code all evening and found a critical error I made in the code. When I switched over to the new model that added Pace of play stats in, I forgot I commented out the block of code that uses the Training data I should be using for an experimental weighted system that did not perform as well in trials. So the entire time I was using the wrong data to train the model than the data that showed good performance (The data I thought I was using). It’s only been a few days since making the switch, but its been a rough few days and I want to apologize, I feel like an idiot for making this oversight.

As always, keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. Random Forest – 54%
  2. Neural Net – 53%
  3. Basic Model – 53%
  4. Linear Regression – 50%
  5. Ada Boost – 49%
  6. SVM – 48%
  7. SGD – 48%
  8. kNN – 46%
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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average.

Team Consistency Update

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance, Standard Deviation (Std Dev), Ave Score for the season, average score over the last 8 games, and a Trending value. Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the last 15 games (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The 76ers score (typically) will deviate about 6.11 points from there average on a given night (Last 15), where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 20.95 points from their average on a given night (Last 15). Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities. The Trending value is an indication of if a team is scoring more points over the last 8 game than there season average. If they are averaging more points over the last 8 than their season average, the trending value will be positive, if the are averaging less than their season average, the trending value will be negative.

Player and Team News

Teams on a back to back: Knicks (NY to Det), Wizards (Was to Bos), T-Wolves (Was to Min).

Clippers/Bucks: Jrue Holiday is expected to return for the Bucks today, His impact on the court will not be reflected in the stats. The Bucks offense struggled at times without Holiday, his return will be a big boost for the Bucks. The Clippers are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bucks are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Celtics: Jaylen Brown is questionable for the Celtics, if he cant go today, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Without Smart in the lineup the Celtics have been very inconsistent. The season series is tied at 1-1. The Wizards are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Celtics are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Raptors: Pascal Siakam is going to be out for a while for the Raptors, his absence today will not be reflected in the stats. The Bulls are 6-4 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Raptors are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Knicks/Pistons: Robinson has missed 7 straight, his absence for the Knicks today will be reflected in the stats. Payton is questionable for the Knicks after missing the last 2 games, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Delon Wright is out for the 5th straight game his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Knicks are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pistons are 4-6 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over.

Grizzlies/Rockets: Oladipo is out for the Rockets, he has missed 5 of the last 8 games. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Rockets have struggled without Wood, although his absence is reflected in the stats. The Grizzlies are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over. The Rockets are 0-10 straight up, 1-9 ATS, and 5-5 to the over the last 10 games.

Warriors/Lakers: Wiseman and Looney have played in 3 of the last 8 games, their impacts will be partially reflected in the stats. Dennis Schroder returned to the Lakers after a 4 game absence, his impact will be partially reflected in the stats. The Lakers are a much better team with Schroder on the floor, they lost all 4 games he missed, and won the first game since his return. The Warriors are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Lakers are 5-5 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hawks/Heat: Trae young is considered a game time decision for todays game, if he can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Tyler Herro is listed as questionable, he has missed the last 3 games, if he doesn’t go his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Hawks are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 9-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Heat are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Suns/Wolves: Malik Beasley was suspended for 12 games for the wolves, he has only missed 1 so far, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Pheonix has played extremely well going 8-2 straight up in the last 10, with both losses coming after leading by double digits in the third each game. The Suns are also 8-2 ATS and to the over. The Wolves have been terrible, going 1-9 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hornets/Kings: Whiteside has missed 3 straight and is out again today, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Hornets are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. the Kings are 1-9 straight up and ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Gordon Hayward is out today for the Hornets. His absence will not be reflected in the stats.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data is available this morning.

ATS – Some Shar money has come in on the Clippers (+2), Celtics (-5.5), & Warriors (+5).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Suns/Wolves Under (226), Warriors/Lakers Under (224.5), & Hornets/Kings Under (237).

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pistons (+2) & Suns (-9).

Late Afternoon

No late Sharp report today.

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 51% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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