NBA Line Projections – 1 Mar 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

  1. Random Forest – 54%
  2. Neural Net – 54%
  3. Basic Model – 53%
  4. Linear Regression – 50%
  5. Ada Boost – 50%
  6. SVM – 49%
  7. SGD – 48%
  8. kNN – 48%
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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average.

Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Hornets (Sac to Por) & Rockets (Home).

Quick morning note, the fact that some models show a bad Cavs team as favored over the Rockets, just shows how terrible the Rockets have been lately.

Mavs/Magic: Porzingis has missed 3 of the last 8 games for the Mavs and is listed as probable for todays game, his impact will be partially reflected in the stats. Ennis is out for the Magic after missing last game and 3 of the last 8, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Mavericks are 7-3 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Magic are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Mavs won the first game between these two teams, 112-93.

Pacers/76ers: Malcolm Brogdon is listed as questionable after missing the last game, Jeremy Lamb is also listed as questionable for the Pacers. If either can’t go, their impacts will not be reflected in the stats. Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid are both listed as questionable, if either of them can’t go their impacts will not be reflected in the stats. The Pacers have struggled since returning from a 7 day layoff for COVID protocols, they are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The 76ers lack of bench production has made them regress recently compared to the hot start out of the gates, they are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. 76ers won the first meeting between these two teams, 119-110 (Joel Embiid was out).

*Tobias Harris officially out for the 76ers.

Jazz/Pelicans: Neither team has any significant injuries that’s aren’t accounted for in the stats. The Jazz have been playing extremely well lately, going 8-2 straight up and ATS, and 6-3-1 to the over. The Pelicans have gone over the total in 13 of the last 15 games, but they are only 3-7 straight up and ATS in the last 10.

Nuggets/Bulls: Paul Millsap remains out for the Nuggets after missing the last 7 games, his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. The Nuggets are 3-4 since has went down. The Nuggets are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bulls are 6-4 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Nuggets bench gets thinner as Campazzo is now out.

Nets/Spurs: Kevin Durant remains out and has missed 7 of the last 8. His absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Kyrie Irving is not on the injury report after missing last game with a calf strain. The Spurs are still impacted by COVID protocols missing 4 players, although all are role players. The Spurs are 1-1 since returning from a 10 day layoff due to COVID protocols. They are expected to play something like 45 games in 60 days after the all star break to make up for games missed during the layoff, this could lead to them fading as the season goes along. The Nets are 8-2 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Spurs are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Jeff Green is now out for the Nets

Cavs/Rockets: If the Rockets stick to what they have all season of sitting Oladipo and Wall on alternating nights of the back to back, expect John Wall to get a rest night tonight. The Cavaliers have been flat out bad since shutting down Drummond as they look to trade him, but as bad as they have been, they have still been better than the Rockets. I have said it on here since it happened, the injury to Wood has crippled the Rockets who have not won a single game since he went down 11 games ago. The Cavs have rattled off 3 straight wins, including one against the Rockets 1 week ago, 112-93. The Rockets are 4-1 on the second night of the back to back. The Cavaliers are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Rockets are 0-10 straight up, 1-9 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Eric Gordon is downgraded to a game time decision for the Rockets. Cavs also affected by injuries to Osman & Prince

Hornets/Blazers: Gordon Hayward is listed as probable after missing yesterday with an injury. his impacts should be almost fully reflected in the stats. Devonte Graham has missed the last 5 games and is out again today, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Hornets are 4-3 on the second night of a back to back. The Hornets are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Blazers are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Gordon Hayward is out today for the Hornets

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data is available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Blazers (-6).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Maverick/Magic Under (226.5).

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pelicans (+8), Nets (-3.5), & Cavaliers (+6.5)

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hornets/Blazers Under (235.5) & Nuggets/Bulls Under (228.5).

Late Afternoon

No Noticeable late Sharp action

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 57% ML, 56% O/U.

ATS – Percentage output files didn’t save correctly, they will be posted in tomorrow’s report
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 56% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 52% ATS, 56% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3 comments

  1. If you don’t mind me asking. How are you extracting your data? Website cleaning, old-fashioned manual labor, or some other programming tool?

    Like

    1. There is a NBA api for python on github. The code is extremely well done and simple to use. I have it setup to extract all the data i need using that api.

      Like

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