NBA Line Projections – 2 Mar 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average.

Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Nuggets (Chi to Mil) & Spurs (Home).

Grizzlies/Wizards: Kyle Anderson is listed as a game time decision for with an illness, if he can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Grayson Allen is out with a concussion, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Dillon Brooks missed 3 of the last 8 games for the Grizzlies which may skew the stats slightly. The Grizzlies are 5-5 straight up, ATS, adn to the over in the last 10 games. The Wizards are playing well, going 7-3 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Kyle Anderson is oficially out.

Clippers/Celtics: Jaylen Brown is listed as questionable with a knee injury after missing last game, if he cant go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Clippers are 8-3 following a loss…They lost their last game 105-100. Paul George and Kawhi have played in 6 of the last 8 games, their impacts should be mostly reflected in the stats. The Clippers are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Celtics are 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Celtics won the last game between these teams 119-115.

Hawks/Heat: Jimmy Butler is listed as a game time decision with a knee injury, if he can’t go his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Heat are 4-9 in games Butler has missed this season. These two teams played on Sat, with the Heat winning 109-99 (Jimmy Butler missed that game). The Hawks just fired their head coach, so we will see how they look with a new leader at the helm. the Hawks are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. The Heat are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Jimmy Butler is officially out.

Knicks/Spurs: Elfrid Payton has missed 3 games for the Knicks and is doubtful tonight. The Knicks are 3-0 since he went down with an injury. The Spurs are still hampered with players out due to COVID protocols. The Spurs are 0-3 on the second night of a back to back. The Knicks are 7-3 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Spurs are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Knicks have covered the first half spread in 13 straight games

*Aldridge is out for the Spurs tonight.

Nuggets/Bucks: Millsap remains out although his absence will be fully reflected in the stats after missing the last 8 games. Jrue Holiday returned to the lineup on Sat and will play tonight, his impact on the court will not be reflected in the stats. The Bucks were averaging 2 less point per game (PPG) without Holiday, and allowing 3 more PPG than their season average without Holiday on the floor. The Nuggets are 4-4 in his absence & 2-2 on the second night of a back to back. The Nuggets are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bucks are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Suns/Lakers: Schroder has missed 4 of the last 8 games for the Lakers, his impact on the court will not be fully reflected in the stats. The Lakers are much better with him on the floor, going 0-4 without him and averaging 101 PPG compared to their season average of 111 PPG. The Lakers are averaging 112.8 PPG, allowing 104 PPG, and are a perfect 5-0 in games Schroder has played without AD since 1 Feb. The Suns have been red hot lately going 8-2 straight up, with both loses coming when having double digit leads over the Nets and Hornets in the 3rd quarter. They are also 8-2 ATS and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Lakers are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Gasol is out for the Lakers.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data is available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Suns (+3).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Grizzlies/Wizards Under (237.5), Nugget/Bucks Over (235.5), & Suns/Lakers Under (217)

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Heat (-3, small).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hawks/Heat Over (217.5), Clippers/Celtics Under (224.5), & Knicks/Spurs Under (222).

Late Afternoon

ATS – Some late Sharp money has come in on the Bucks (-7).

O/U – Some buyback came in on the Grizzlies/Wizards Over (236.5).

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 61% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 59% ML, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 56% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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