NBA Line Projections – 3 Mar 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average.

*The “To the over trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Lakers (LA to Sac) & Hawks (Mia to Orl).

Pacers/Cavs: Jeremy Lamb is listed as a game time decision for the Pacers after missing last game with an injury, if he can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Doug McDermott is listed a s a game time decision with teeth injury, if he can’t go his absence won’t be reflected in the stats. Prince is considered a game time decision for the Cavs. He has missed 6 of the last 8, if he does play, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. After a dreadful 0-10 run the Cavs have now ripped off 4 straight wins. The Pacers are 0-4 since returning form the 7 day layoff due to COVID protocols. The Pacers are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Cavaliers are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Jazz/76ers: Tobias Harris is listed as a game time decision after missing the last 2 games with a knee injury. If he can’t play his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Jazz are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and 6-3-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The 76ers are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pistons/Raptors: These two teams are limping into the all-star break thanks to injury and COVID. Jerami Grant is a game time decision for the Pistons, if he can’t go his impact will not be reflecetd in the stats. .Frank Jackson and Delon Wright are out for the Pistons, Their absences will be partially reflected in the stats. VanVleet, Siakam, and Anunoby are all out today due to COVID protocols, their absences will not be reflected in the stats. The Pistons are 3-7 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. The Raptors are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Raptors coaching staff still out due to COVID protocols.

Nets/Rockets: Eric Gordon and Danuel House are both questionable tonight with injuries, if they cant go their absences will not be reflected in the stats. The Nets stats have accounted for Durant’s absence. The Rockets have been absolutely dreadful since wood went down with an injury, now 0-12 in those games. Oladipo has only played in 3 of the last 8, his impact on the court tonight will only be partially reflected in the stats. The Nets are 9-2 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 tot he over in the last 10 games. The Rockets are 0-10 straight up, 1-9 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

*James Harden’s first game back in Houston (The Harden revenge game?).

Bulls/Pelicans: There aren’t any injuries that aren’t accounted for in the stats. The Bulls are 6-4 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pelicans are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 9-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hornets/T-Wolves: Hayward has missed 2 straight and 3 of the last 8 games. He is listed as a game time decision, if he can’t go, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Zeller is a game time decision for tonight after missing the last 3 games, if he can’t go his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Malik Beasley is suspended and has missed the last 2 games for the Wolves, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Hornets are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. The Wolves are 1-9 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hawks/Magic: Ennis is out for the Magic and has missed 4 of the last 8, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Fournier is considered questionable for today, if he can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Hawks beat a Jimmy Butler-less Heat tea yesterday under their new head coach, 94-80. The Hawks are 1-5 on the second night of a back to back. The Hawks are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Magic are 4-6 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Thunder/Mavs: Doncic is listed as a game time decision with a back injury. If he can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Thunder are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Mavericks are 8-2 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Thunder have been great covering first half spreads and covering the spreads on the road in recent games.

*Luka Doncic now listed as doubtful.

Warriors/Blazers: Looney and Wiseman have played in 4 of the last 8 games and will play tonight, their impacts will be partially reflected in the stats. The Warriors are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Blazers are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Lakers/Kings: LeBron James will rest tonight on the second day of the back to back, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Gasol missed yesterday due to COVID protocol’s so its likely he will miss today too, his absence wont be reflected in the stats. Kuzma missed yesterdays game with a heel injury and is a game time decision, if he can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Sacramento is dealing with injuries to Whiteside, Hield, & Haliburton. Whiteside and Haliburton have missed 4 and 2 games respectively, their absences will be partially reflected in the stats. Hield is questionable for tonight’s game, if he can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Lakers are 2-1 on the second night of a back to back, LeBron has played in all 3 of those games. The Lakers are 4-6 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. The Kings are 1-9 straight up and ATS, and 9-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Caruso is now questionable.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data is available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Thunder (+8).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bulls/Pelicans Over (236).

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pistons (+6), Nets (-6.5), Hornets (+1), & Magic (+4.5).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pistons/Raptors Under (215.5) & Lakers/Kings Under (227.5).

Late Afternoon

No noticeable Sharp late action.

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 58% ML, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 58% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 56% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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