NBA Line Projections – 4 Mar 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average.

*The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Pistons (Tampa to NY), Pacers (Cle to Ind), Raptors (Tampa to Bos), Warriors (Por to Pho), Kings (Sac to Por), Blazers (Home), Pelicans (Home), & Thunder (Dal to SA).

Raptors/Celtics: Siakam, VanVleet, Anunoby are all still out due to COVID protocols, their absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Raptors are 1-5 on the second night of a back to back this season. The Raptors are 5-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. The Celtics are 5-5 stright up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Clippers/Wizards: Kawhi Leonard is listed as a game time decision with a back injury after missing last game. If he cant go, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Marcus Morris is doubtful with a concussion, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Clippers are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Wizards are 7-3 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pistons/Knicks: Jerami Grant is listed as questionable for todays game after missing yesterday with a quad injury, if he cant go, his absence wont be reflected in the stats. Delon Wright has missed 6 games and is out again tonight for the Pistons, his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Elfrid Payton and Mitchell Robinson have missed 4 straight and appear to be outtoday, their absences will be partially reflected in the stats. Derick Rose is listed as a game time decision, if he can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Pistins are 2-4 on the second night of a back to back. Pistons are 4-6 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Knicks are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Nuggets/Pacers: The Nuggets are still having injury issues, although Millsap has missed enough games that his absence will be reflected in the stats. The Pacers are 4-2 on the second night of a back to back. The Nuggets are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pacers are 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bucks/Grizzlies: Grayson Allen remains out for the Grizzlies after missing the last 2 games with a concussion. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Bucks are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Grizzlies are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Pelicans: Jimmy Butler has missed the last 2 games and is questionable today. If he can’t go, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Bam Adebayo is also listed as questionable and if he can’t go, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Pelican games have been crazy on hitting the overs now going over in 15 of the last 17 games. The Pelicans are 1-4 on the second night of a back to back. The Heat are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pelicans are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 9-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Thunder/Spurs: The Spurs are getting healthier, but still face some minor injury issues. The Thunder are 2-5 on the second night of a back to back and AL Horford has rested either the first or second game of every back to back (played last night). The Thunder are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Spurs are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Warriors/Suns: Kelly Oubre missed yesterdays game after spraining his wrist in shoot arounds and is questionable today. If he can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Wiseman and Looney played in 5 of the last 8 games, their impacts will now be partially reflected in the stats. The Warriors are 3-3 on the second night of a back to back. The Warriors are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Suns are red hot, going 8-2 straight up and ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Draymond Green and Steph Curry are out for the Warriors tonight, their absence will not be reflected in the stats.

Kings/Blazers: The Kings injuries are piling up, although their starters are all still healthy. The Kings have been dreadful lately but are coming off a win last night against a LeBron-les Lakers team. The Kings are 2-5 on the second night of a back to back. The Blazers are 3-3 on the second night of a back to back. The Kings are 2-8 straight up, 1-9 ATS, and 9-1 to the over in the last 10 games. the Blazers are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

No betting data is available this morning.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Knicks (-5) & Nuggets (-2.5).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bucks/Grizzlies Under (237) & Pistons/Knicks Under (210.5).

Late Afternoon

No Late Sharp report today.

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 58% ML, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 58% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 56% ML, 51% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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