NBA Line Projections – 11 Mar 21

Thank you everybody for the support through my first few months posting the statistical data. All of the donations I have gotten make it worth the amount of time and effort I have put in.

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Mavericks (Dal to OKC).

2nd half Quick Initial Thoughts: After the All-Star break the rest vs rust debate will be alive and well for the first game or two, as some teams struggle to find a rhythm and other look like they never missed a beat. The Spurs and Grizzlies have a lot of games to make up due to long COVID layoffs in the first half of the season, they could get tired and fade down the stretch.

Todays Quick Initial Thoughts: The Models have had a hard time projecting the Bucks, they have been very inconsistent lately going on 5 game winning streaks followed by 5 game losing streaks for about a month and a half now.

Pistons/Hornets: Delon Wright has missed 7 of the last 8 and is listed as a questionable today. If he plays, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Pistons are 3-7 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Hornets are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 9-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Celtics/Nets: Marcus Smart is expected to make his return after a long layoff, although his minutes are expected to be restricted. His impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Celtics are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Nets are 9-1 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Celtics are 7-12 straight up & 6-13 ATS on the road this season. The Nets are 13-6 straight up at home this season.

Hawks/Raptors: The Raptors are still facing COVID Protocol issues with 5 players missing todays game, including Siakam, VanVleet, and Anunoby. They have missed, 3, 2 and 2 games out of the last 8 respectively and their absences will not be reflected in the stats. The Raptors are 0-2 in the games all 3 have missed. The Hawks are 5-5 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Raptors are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in his last 10 games.

Wolves/Pelicans: Beasley will miss his 4th straight game due to a suspension and Culver is doubtful after playing in just 3 of the last 8 games. Both players absences will be partially reflected in the stats. The Wolves have been dreadful lately, going 1-9 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Wolves are just 1-11 since KAT has returned from COVID Protocols, 3-16 straight up on the road this season. The Pelicans are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pelicans are 15-3-1 to the over at home this season and 25-10-1 overall.

76ers/Bulls: Embiid and Simmons are out today due to COVID protocols, their absence will not be reflected in the stats. The 76ers are 0-1 in games when both Embiid and Simmons have missed, 2-3 with just Simmons out, and 1-4 in games Embiid has missed. Markannen is listed as probable for the Bulls tonight after a long layoff, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The 76ers are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. the Bulls are 6-4 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bulls are just 7-11 straight up and 7-10-1 ATS at home this season.

Magic/Heat: Adebayo is out tonight for the Heat, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Fournier is out tonight for the Magic, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Gordon is listed as questionable and may make his return tonight after a long layoff. If he plays, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Magic are 4-6 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Heat are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Magic are 5-11 straight up on the road this season.

Knicks/Bucks: Rose has missed the last 2 games and remains out tonight for the Knicks, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Bucks have been inconsistent the last month or so, but playing better before heading into the break. The Knicks are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bucks are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Knicks are 5-14 to the over on the road this season.

Mavs/Thunder: I don’t see Luka in the starting lineup this morning, not sure if there is news about him being injured or resting tonight. The Mavs are 2-4 on the second night of a back to back and Porzingis has only played in 2 of those games. The Mavs are 8-2 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Thunder are 4-6 straight up and TAS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Thunder are 6-10-1 ATS and 6-11 straight up at home this season.

Warriors/Clippers: Wiseman missed a mandatory COVID test and may not play tonight, if he can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Warriors are 5-5 straight up and ATS, adn 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Clippers are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Warriors are 7-12 straight up, ATS, and to the over on the road this season. Clippers are 10-3 after a loss this season (Lost the last 3 games).

*Wiseman is probable for tonight.

Suns/Blazers: There isn’t any significant injuries that aren’t accounted for in the stats unless Booker has a set back and is downgraded from probable today. The Suns are 8-2 straight up and ATS , and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Blazers are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Suns are 12-5 straight up and ATS on the road this season. The Blazers are 7-10 ATS at home this season.

Rockets/Kings: The Rockets have been absolutely dreadful since Wood went down and now Gordon is questionable with a knee injury. If Gordon can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Rockets have lost 13 straight and are 1-9 ATS and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Kings haven’t been much better going 2-8 straight up and ATS, and 9-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Celtics (+3, small) & T-Wolves (+8.5, small).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Knicks/Bucks Under (224.5) & Wolves/Pelicans Over (238).

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bulls (-2), Heat (-6.5), Thunder (+6.5), & Suns (-4.5).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hawks/Raptors Under (227.5), 76ers/Bulls Under (229.5), & Mavs/Thunder Under (222).

Late Afternoon

No Noticeable late Sharp action.

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 62% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 59% ML, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 52% ATS, 57% ML, 51% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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