NBA Line Projections – 12 Mar 21

Thank you everybody for the support through my first few months posting the statistical data. All of the donations I have gotten make it worth the amount of time and effort I have put in.

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Advertisements

Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

Advertisements

Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

Advertisements

Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: 76ers (Chi to Was), Pelicans (Home), Heat (Mia to Chi), Bulls (Home), Rockets (Sac to Utah), & Magic (Mia to SA).

Cavs/Pelicans: Kevin Love and Darius Garland are both listed as game time decisions for the Cavs tonight. If Garland can’t play, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. If Love does play, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Pelicans were dreadful last night, getting routed against the worst team (record wise) in the NBA. The Pelicans are just 1-5 on the second night of a back to back with an average points margin of -5.7 points and going 0-4 in the last 4. The Cavs are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pelicans are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. The Cavs are just 5-12 straight up and ATS on the road this season. The Pelicans have been an over machine, going 16-3-1 to the over at home this season.

76ers/Wizards: Simmons remains out through Sat due to COVID protocols, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Embiid is eligible to return today but his status remains up in the air (although it seems likely he will play). If Embiid cannot play, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Bradley Beal is considered a game time decision for the Wizards, if he can’t play his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The season series between these two is tied at 1-1. The 76ers are 2-3 on the second night of a back to back with an average scoring margin of -9.2 points and failing to cover the spread by an average of 16.6 points in those games. The 76ers are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Wizards are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Wizards are 12-5 to the over at home this season.

Nuggets/Grizzlies: Millsap is listed as questionable for tonight after missing the last 10 games for the Nuggets. If he does play, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Nuggets are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Grizzlies are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Grizzlies are just 8-11 straight up at home this season.

Heat/Bulls: Adebayo remains out with an injury after missing the last 2 games, his absence not be reflected in the stats. The Heat are 2-2 on the second night of a back to back, covering the spread by an average of 5.6 points in those games. The Bulls are 3-5 on the second night of a back to back but cover the spread by an average of 3.4 points. The Heat are 8-2 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bulls are 6-4 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bulls are just 7-12 at home this season (7-11-1 ATS).

Magic/Spurs: Aaron Gordon returned but was and will remain on a minutes restriction. His impact will not be reflected in the stats. Fournier and Ennis are both considered questionable tonight. if Fournier cant go, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. If Ennis does or does not play his impact will be partially reflected in the stats as he has missed 4 of the last 8 games. DeRozan is out for the Spurs tonight, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Alridge and the Spurs parted ways and he has played in 3 of the last 8, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Orlando is 3-3 on the second night of a back to back this season. the Magic are 3-7 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Spurs are 5-5 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Gordon, Fournier, Ennis, and Ross all out for the Magic.

Rockets/Jazz: Wall and Oladipo typically alternate days off on back to backs and Wall sat last night, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oladipo sit tonight. PJ Tucker is frustrated with he Rockets organization and was a healthy scratch last night, he may remain out as the Rockets seek to trade him. Eric Gordon is also questionable for tonight. All of the above players’ absence will not be reflected in the stats if they don’t play tonight. The Rockets are 2-2 on the second night of a back to back. Rockets have been dreadful lately going 0-13 straight up in the last 13 and 1-9 ATS and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Jazz have cooled a bit after a scorching hot mid Jan-Feb going 6-4 straight up and ATS and 6-3-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Everybody is out for the Rockets tonight, they might be visiting local parks to find players to face the Jazz tonight.

Pacers/Lakers: Gasol remains out for the Lakers, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Pacers struggled after a 7 day layoff due to COVID protocols, going 1-5 after that layoff. This the first game back after another week long layoff due to the all-star break. The Pacers are 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Lakers are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Lakers have struggled going 3-6 since AD went down with a calf injury, averaging 106.6 points per game in those games as compared to their 111 points per game season average.

Advertisements

Sharp Report

Early Money

Not enough betting data available this morning.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Wizards (+5) & Cavs (+8).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the 76er/Wizards Under (234.5, small) & Magic/Spurs Under (219.5).

Late Afternoon

ATS – Some small Sharp action has come in on the Bulls (+2.5)

Advertisements

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Advertisements

Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 63% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Advertisements

2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 60% ML, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Advertisements

3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 52% ATS, 60% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s