NBA Line Projections – 13 Mar 21

Thank you everybody for the support through my first few months posting the statistical data. All of the donations I have gotten make it worth the amount of time and effort I have put in.

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Team Consistency Update

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the last ~20-24 games (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Spurs score (typically) will deviate about 4.17 points from there average on a given night, where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 20.95 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Wizards (Home), Nuggets (Mem to Den), & Pacers (LA to Pho).

Knicks/Thunder: The Knicks have a few injuries piling up with Derrick Rose set to miss his 4th straight game and Elfrid Payton considered a game time decision. Payton has missed 4 of the last 8 games and his impact will be partially reflected in the stats. Shae Gilgeous-Alexander and Darius Bazley are both out for the Thunder, their absences will not be reflected in the stats. The Knicks are 6-4 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. The Thunder are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Thunder are just 7-11 straight up at home this season (7-10-1 ATS). Knicks are 6-14 to the over on the road this season.

Pistons/Nets: Dennis Smith is out for the Pistons due to COVID protocols, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Pistons are just 2-8 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Nets are 9-1 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bucks/Wizards: There aren’t any injuries not accounted for in the stats. Wizards are 4-5 on the second night of the back to back, but 6-3 ATS and to the over in those games. The Bucks are 7-3 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Wizards are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Raptors/Hornets: Raptors are still facing COVID issues with Siakam, VanVleet, and Anunoby out (among others). Their absences will be partially reflected in the stats. The Raptors are 5-5 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Hornets are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Hawks: There aren’t any injuries that aren’t accounted for in the stats. The Kings are just 3-7 straight up and ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. The Hawks are 6-4 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Hawks are 3-0 since firing their head coach.

Blazers/Wolves: Malik Beasley is suspended and has missed the last 4 games, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Wolves finally won a game, dominating the Pelicans last game after a dreadful 0-13 run. The Blazers have cooled down a bit going 5-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. The Wolves are 1-9 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Mavs/Nuggets: Millsap returned yesterday for the Nuggets, no indication on if he will play in the back to back. If he does pay, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. Porzingis has missed 4 of the last 8 games, his impact will be partially reflected in the stats. Denver is 3-2 straight up and ATS on the second night of a back to back, covering by an average of 9.7 points per game. The Mavs are 5-1 straight up and ATS, with an average margin of victory of 6.8 points, when they have a rest advantage over their opponents this season. The Mavs are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Nuggets are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over int he last 10 games.

Pacers/Suns: Caris LeVert is set to make his debut for the Pacers today, although his minutes will likely be limited. His impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Pacers struggled after a 7 day layoff due to COVID protocols in Feb, going 1-5, and started their return from another week layoff due to the all-star break with a loss at the Lakers. Pacers are 4-3 on the second night of a back to back. The Suns are 6-3 when they have the rest advantage over their opponents, with an average margin of victory of 7.7 points. The Pacers are 3-7 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Suns are 8-2 straight up and ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hornets (-2), Blazers (-4), & Kings (+5).

Mid Day

ATS – Some small Sharp action has come in on the Pistons (+11.5) and Thunder (+5.5).

O/U – Some Sharp action has come in on the Knicks/Thunder Under (214.5) followed by buyback on the over (207.5). Some Sharp action has also come in on the Pistons/Nets Under (229), & Bucks/Wizards over (239.5).

Late Afternoon

No Late Sharp report today.

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 66% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 64% ML, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 52% ATS, 62% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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