NBA Line Projection – 14 Mar 21

Thank you everybody for the support through my first few months posting the statistical data. All of the donations I have gotten make it worth the amount of time and effort I have put in.

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Team Consistency Update

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What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the last ~20-24 games (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Spurs score (typically) will deviate about 4.17 points from there average on a given night, where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 20.95 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Thunder (Home), Hawks (Home), Raptors (Cha to Chi), Blazers & Wolves play each other for the second straight day.

Spurs/76ers: DeMar DeRozan will be out again for the Spurs for today’s game, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Joel Embiid will be out today for the 76ers. Ben Simmons will be a GTD, but is expected to play. His impact will be almost fully reflected in the stats. The Spurs are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The 76ers are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS, and they are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Magic: The Heat will be without Bam Adebayo again for the fourth straight game, so this will be partially reflected in the stats. The Magic will be without Evan Fournier and James Ennis again, and both of their absences will be reflected in the stats. Terrence Ross will be a GTD for the Magic as well. The Heat are 9-1 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Magic are 3-7 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Grizzlies/Thunder: There are no injuries for the Grizzlies that will be reflected in the stats for today’s game. The Thunder are 3-5 on the second night of a back to back, and are 2-5-1 ATS and 6-2 to the over on those games. Both Darius Bazley and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are still questionable for today’s game. The Grizzlies are 5-5 straight up and 7-3 ATS, but they are 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. The Thunder are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and they are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Jazz/Warriors: There are no injuries for either team that will be reflected in the stats for today’s game. The Jazz are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-3-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Warriors are 4-6 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games.

Cavs/Hawks: There are no injuries that will be accounted for the the stats. The Cavs are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Hawks are 6-4 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Hawks are 2-5 on the second night of a back to back, 2-4-1 ATS, and 4-3 to the over.

Raptors/Bulls: Raptors are still facing COVID issues with Siakam, VanVleet, and Anunoby out (among others). Their absences will be partially reflected in the stats. The Bulls will be without Garrett Temple, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Raptors are 4-6 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. They are also on the second night of a back to back, with a record of 1-6. They are also 3-4 ATS and 5-2 to the over on those games. The Bulls are 5-5 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Clippers/Pelicans: Clippers will be without Patrick Beverley for today’s game and most likely the next two games as well. His absence will not be reflected in the stats. There are no other injuries that will be accounted for in the stats. Clippers are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Pelicans are 4-6 straight up and ATS as well, and are 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Celtics/Rockets: Marcus Smart returned for the Celtics, his impact wont be reflected in the stats. The Rockets are a mess. Most of their starters are out, including Wall, Tucker, Gordon, and Wood. Oladipo is the only starter that remains in. Their current lineup is not going to be accurately reflected in the stats. Celtics 5-5 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Rockets are 0-10 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Trail Blazers/Timberwolves: Blazers are 4-3 straight up and ATS on the second night of a back to back. They are also 5-2 to the over. Wolves are 2-6 straight up, 3-4-1 ATS, and 4-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. There are no absences that will be accounted for in the stats for the Blazers. Wolves will be without Malik Beasley again, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. For the last 10 games, Blazers are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over. Wolves are 1-9 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Jazz -6, 76ers -2, & Hawks -6.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Celtics/Rockets Under 224.

Mid Day

ATS – There is some small Sharp action on the Raptors +3.5

O/U – Some Sharp action on the Spurs/76ers under 225.5, Cavs/Hawks under 225.5, and Clippers/Pelicans under 236.

Late Afternoon

No Late Sharp report today.

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 66% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 64% ML, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 52% ATS, 62% ML, 51% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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