NBA Line Projections – 15 Mar 21

Thank you everybody for the support through my first few months posting the statistical data. All of the donations I have gotten make it worth the amount of time and effort I have put in.

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Spurs (Phi to Det), Grizzlies (OKC to Pho), Warriors (Home), & Clippers (NO to Dal).

Knicks/Nets: For the Knicks, Quickley will be a GTD, but is considered probable. Elfrid Payton is also listed as GTD, but he is doubtful, and his 6 absences over the last 8 games will be mostly reflected in the stats. Derrick Rose is out again, and his absence will be reflected in the stats. The Nets do not have any absences that are accounted for in the stats. Knicks are 6-4 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. Nets are 9-1 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Spurs/Pistons: DeRozan will be a GTD for the Spurs after missing the past 2 games, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. Pistons are still without Dennis Smith for the second straight game. Spurs are 5-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. Spurs are also 1-4 on the second night of a back to back, 2-3 ATS, and 2-3 to the over. Pistons are 2-8 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Hornets: Neither team has any absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Kings are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Hornets are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bucks/Wizards: Bucks have no injuries that will be reflected in the stats. Wizards are without Bertans for the second game in a row, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Bucks are 8-2 straight up and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Wizards are 4-6 straight up and 6-4 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Grizzlies/Suns: There are no injuries that will be accounted for in the stats. Grizzlies are 2-3 straight up and ATS, but are 4-1 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Grizzlies are 4-6 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Suns are 8-2 straight up and ATS and are 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Lakers/Warriors: Warriors have no absences that will be reflected in the stats. LeBron James and Kyle Kuzma are a GTD, but are probable for today’s game. Marc Gasol is out again, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Lakers are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Warriors are 3-4 straight up and ATS, and they are 2-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Warriors are 4-6 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games.

Clippers/Mavericks: Patrick Beverley is out again for the Clippers, as expected, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Mavericks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Mavericks are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Clippers are on the second night of a back to back with a 6-0 record straight up and ATS, and 3-3 to the over. In the last 10 games, Clippers are 4-6 straight up and ATS and 5-4-1 to the over.

Pacers/Nuggets: There are no injuries for the Pacers that will be reflected in the stats. Nuggets will be without Monte Morris, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Paul Millsap has only played in 2 of the last 3 games, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. Pacers are 3-7 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Nuggets are 7-3 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hornets -2, Nets -7.5, & Mavs +2.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Kings/Hornets Under 241, Pacers/Nuggets Under 226.5, & Clippers/Mavs Under 228.5.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Wizards +9.5, Pistons +3.5, & Pacers +5.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bucks/Wizards Under 244.5, Spurs/Pistons Over 209, & Grizzlies/Suns Under 228.

Late Afternoon

No noticeable late Sharp action.

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 65% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 63% ML, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 62% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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