NBA Line Projections – 16 Mar 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

Advertisements

Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

Advertisements

Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

Advertisements

Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Lakers (SF to LA) & Knicks (Bkn to Phi).

Hawks/Rockets: There are no injuries that wont be accounted for in the stats for the Hawks. Rockets are still without most of their starters, and Oladipo is the only starter that remains in. The current lineup will not be accurately represented in the stats. Hawks are 7-3 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Rockets are 0-10 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Thunder/Bulls: Bazley is still out for the Thunder, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Maledon and Dort are GTD for today’s game, and both players did not play in the previous game. Al Horford will be out for today’s game to rest, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Garrett Temple will be out again for the Bulls, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Thunder are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and they are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Bulls are 5-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games.

Jazz/Celtics: Marcus Smart has played in just the last 3 games for the Celtics, his impact will be partially reflected in the stats. Jazz are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-3-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Celtics are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Cavs/Heat: There are no injuries that will be accounted for in the stats for the Cavs. Adebayo and Herro will be GTD for the Heat. Adebayo has missed the past 4 games, so another absence today would be partially reflected in the stats. Cavs are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 2-7-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Heat are 9-1 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Timberwolves/Lakers: Wolves are still without Beasley, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Gasol is out again for the Lakers, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Wolves are 2-8 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Lakers are 2-3 straight up and ATS, and 3-2 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Lakers are also 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pelicans/Blazers: There are no injuries that will be accounted for in the stats. CJ McCollum is back for the Blazers after a 2-month absence. His return will not be accounted for in the stats. Pelicans are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and they are 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Blazers are 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Knicks/76ers: Elfrid Payton will be a GTD decision for the Knicks, and he has not played the last 6 out of 8 games. Derrick Rose is out again for the 5th straight game, which will be partially reflected in the stats. 76ers will be without Joel Embiid for the next two weeks due to injury, and his absence tonight will not be represented in the stats. Knicks are 4-4 straight up and ATS, and 3-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Knicks are also 6-4 straight up, and 7-3 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. 76ers are 8-2 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Advertisements

Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data available this morning.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Lakers/Wolves Over 224.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Celtics +4.5 (small), Bulls -4.5, Knicks +7.5 (small), & Wolves +9 (small).

O/U – Some Sharp Money has come in on the Cavs/Heat Under 216.5, and some buyback on the Lakers/Wolves Under 225.

Late Afternoon

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bulls -4.

Advertisements

Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

Advertisements

Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 67% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Advertisements

2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 65% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Advertisements

3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 63% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s