NBA Line Projections – 17 Mar 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Yesterday’s records didn’t save in the image output below, but the overall record does reflect yesterdays results.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Bulls, 76ers, Heat, Celtics, Cavaliers, and Rockets.

Quick Initial Thoughts: 76ers stats are over-inflated due to Embiid injury. Raptors could be getting players back from COVID Protocols which will skew the stats. Stats like the Rockets to cover, but I wouldn’t bet the Rockets to cover against any team in the tournament right now.

Kings/Wizards: Whiteside will be a GTD decision for the Kings, and he has missed the past 9 games, so his return will not be accurately reflected in the stats. Marvin Bagley is out due to injury, so his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Raul Neto is a GTD decision for the Wizards. Kings are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Wizards are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Spurs/Bulls: DeRozan is still out for the Spurs, and this will be his 4th consecutive missed game. This will be partially reflected in the stats. Garrett Temple will miss his 3rd straight consecutive game, and this will be somewhat reflected in the stats. Spurs are 5-5 straight up and ATS, ad 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Bulls are on the second night of a back to back, with a record of 3-6 straight up, 5-4 ATS, and 5-4 to the over. In the last 10 games, Bulls are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over.

Bucks/76ers: There are no injuries for the Bucks that will be reflected in the stats. 76ers are still without Embiid for the 3rd straight game, as mentioned above. Bucks are 9-1 straight up, and 6-4 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. 76ers are 8-2 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. 76ers are also 3-3 straight up, 1-5 ATS, and 4-2 to the over on the second night of a back to back.

Raptors/Pistons: For the Raptors, Siakam will be a GTD. He has missed the past 6 games, so his absence would be accurately reflected in the stats if he is out tonight. VanVleet has missed the past 5 games, and his listed as “doubtful” for tonight’s game. His absence will be reflected in the stats if he is out again. OG Anunoby is out for today’s game, and this will be his 6th consecutive missed game. His absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Pistons list Dennis Smith as a GTD after missing the past 2 games. His absence would only partially be reflected in the stats. Raptors are 3-7 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Raptors are off extended rest. Pistons are 2-8 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Nets/Pacers: There are no absences for either team that will be accounted for in the stats. Nets are 9-1 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Pacers are 3-7 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Grizzlies: There are no injuries for either team that will be accounted for in the stats. Heat, on the second night of a back to back, are 3-2 straight up, 4-1 ATS, and 3-2 to the over. In the last 10 games, Heat are 9-1 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 4-6 to the over. Grizzlies are 4-6 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games.

Clippers/Mavericks: For the Clippers, Ibaka is listed as a GTD for tonight’s game after missing the previous game. Beverley is still out for the 3rd consecutive missed game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Mavericks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Clippers are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Mavericks are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hornets/Nuggets: Hornets have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Nuggets will be without Monte Morris again for the 3rd consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Hornets are 7-3 straight up, and 6-4 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Nuggets are 7-3 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Celtics/Cavs: Neither team has absences that will be accounted for in the states. Celtics are 3-4 straight up, 3-4 ATS, and 5-2 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Celtics are also 5-5 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Cavs are 4-4 straight up and ATS, and ,1-7 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Cavs are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Kemba is out for the Celtics, his absence will not be reflected in the stats.

Warriors/Rockets: Warriors have no injuries that will be accounted for in the stats. The Rockets are yet again a mess. Wood could return tonight, but would be the only starter to play if he does return, and his return would not be accurately reflected in the stats. Warriors are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Rockets are on the second night of a back to back, with records of 2-3 straight up, 3-2 ATS, and 2-3 to the over. Rockets are also 0-10 straight up, 1-9 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bucks -4.5, Kings +4, & Grizzlies +3.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Kings/Wizards Over 244 & Clippers/Mavs Under 227.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Raptors -2, Mavs +3, & More on the Grizzlies +1.5.

O/U – Some Sharp action has come in on the Nets/Pacers Over 229.5, Raptors/Pistons Under 221.5, Spurs/Bulls Under 228.5, and Hornets/Nuggets Under 230.5.

Late Afternoon

No Noticeable late Sharp action

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 68% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 67% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 65% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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