NBA Line Projections – 19 Mar 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

*Sorry All, Realized too late that I forgot to create a copy from yesterdays report and accidentally wrote over it with todays report. As a result, you will not see a 18 Mar report.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Magic (NY to Orl), Jazz (Was to Tampa), Blazers (Home), & Wolves @ Suns play each other for the second straight game.

Pacers/Heat: There are no injuries that will be accounted for in the stats for either team. Pacers are 2-8 straight up, 1-9 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Heat are 8-2 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Nets/Magic: Kyrie Irving is listed as a GTD today, but is probable. Magic will be without Michael Carter-Williams again tonight for the second consecutive game. His absence will not be reflected in the stats. Terrence Ross is listed as a GTD, but if he does not play, his absence will be the 4th in 8 games and partially reflected in the stats. Nets are 9-1 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Magic, on the second night of a back to back, are 3-4 straight up, and 4-3 ATS and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Magic are 1-9 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pistons/Rockets: Wayne Ellington is out for his 3rd consecutive game for the Pistons, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Oladipo and Wood are expected to play for the Rockets, and John Wall is listed as a GTD. If Wall does not play, it will be his 6th consecutive absence, which will be partially reflected in the stats. Pistons are 3-7 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Rockets are 0-10 straight up, 1-9 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Warriors/Grizzlies: Steph Curry will be a GTD for the Warriors, but is doubtful to play. His absence would not be reflected in the stats. Kelly Oubre is also listed as a GTD, but doubtful to play as well. James Wiseman is out for at least the next few games, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Grizzlies have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Warriors are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Grizzlies are 5-5 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wolves/Suns: Neither team has any absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Wolves are 3-6 straight up, 4-4-1 ATS, and 4-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Wolves are also 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. Suns are 7-1 straight up and ATS, and 4-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Suns are also 7-3 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Mavericks/Blazers: There are no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Mavericks are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. Blazers are 4-4 straight up and ATS, and 5-3 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Blazers are also 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Jazz/Raptors: Mike Conley is a GTD for tonight’s game for the Jazz, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Raptors have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Jazz are 5-1 straight up and ATS, but 2-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Jazz are also 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Raptors are 2-8 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Nuggets: Garrett Temple is still out for the Bulls for the 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Nuggets will be without Monte Morris again for the 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Bulls are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Nuggets are 8-2 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Celtics: Bagley is out again for the Kings for the 2nd consecutive game, and is projected to miss 4 weeks. His absence is not reflected in the stats. Celtics have no injuries that will be accounted for in the stats. Kings are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Celtics are 5-5 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Spurs/Cavs: DeRozan will be out for his 5th consecutive game tonight, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Cavs have no injuries that will be accounted for in the stats. Spurs are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Cavs are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Kings +7.5, Pacers +5, Nuggets -6.5, & Mavs -1.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bulls/Nuggets Under 229.5, Wolves/Suns Under 231.5, & Mavs/Blazers Under 234.5.

Mid Day

Not much noticeable Sharp action today.

O/U- There is some buyback on the Suns/Wolves Over 231.

Late Afternoon

No late Sharp report today.

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Summary of Projections

ATS Projections

O/U Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 67% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 66% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 64% ML, 51% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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