NBA Line Projections – 21 Mar 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Lakers & 76ers.

Magic/Celtics: Carter-Williams is a GTD for the Magic after missing the past 2 games. Terrence Ross will be out again for the 3rd consecutive game, and he has missed 4 out of the last 8 games. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Celtics have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Magic are 1-9 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Celtics are 5-5 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Nets: Davis Bertans will be out for the Wizards for at least 2 weeks due to injury. His absence will not be reflected in the stats. Jeff Green is listed as a GTD for the Nets, but is probable. It also appears that Blake Griffin might make his debut with the Nets for tonight’s game, but will have reduced minutes if he plays. Wizards are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Nets are 8-2 straight up, and 6-4 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Pelicans/Nuggets: Lonzo Ball is a GTD for the Pelicans, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats. Monte Morris is out again for the Nuggets for the 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Pelicans are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Nuggets are 8-2 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pacers/Heat: There are no absences for the Pacers that will be accounted for in the stats. Goran Dragic is listed as a GTD for the Heat. His absence will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Pacers are 3-7 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. Heat are 7-3 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Thunder/Rockets: Bazley is still out for the Thunder for the 6th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Al Horford is out for tonight’s game as well to rest for their first night of a back to back. Kevin Porter will be out for tonight’s game for the Rockets, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Christian Wood and John Wall are back, but their return will not be reflected in the stats. Thunder are 5-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. Rockets are 0-10 straight up, 1-9 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Lakers/Suns: LeBron James is out for the Lakers, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Gasol is listed as a GTD, but his return would not be reflected in the stats. Suns have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Lakers are 3-3 straight up and ATS, and 4-2 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Lakers are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Suns are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Mavericks/Blazers: There are no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Mavericks are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, ad 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Blazers are 7-3 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

76ers/Knicks: Ben Simmons is a GTD for the 76ers. He has missed 3 out of the past 8 games, and his absence would only be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Seth Curry is out again for the 2nd consecutive game, and his absence is not reflected in the stats. Embiid is still out for the 5th consecutive game, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. Elfrid Payton is a GTD for the Knicks, and his return would only be partially reflected in the stats if he does play. Quickly is listed as a GTD as well. 76ers are 3-4 straight up, 2-5 ATS, and 4-3 to the over on the second night of a back to back. 76ers are also 8-2 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Knicks are 6-4 straight up, and 7-3 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Raptors/Cavs: Neither team has any absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Raptors are 1-9 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Cavs are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Pistons: Garrett Temple is still out for the Bulls, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Ellington is out again for the Pistons for the 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Bulls are 4-6 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Pistons are 3-7 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data available this morning.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on Pacers/Heat Under 217.5, Wizards/Nets Over 245, Bulls/Pistons Under 218.5, & Mavs/Blazers Over 222.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on Mavs -1 & Pacers +5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Thunder/Rockets Over 216.5, Nuggets/Pelicans Under 233.5, Magic/Celtics Under 216.5, & 76ers/Knicks Under 215.

Late Afternoon

No Late Sharp report today

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 66% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 65% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 64% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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