These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

NOTE: I will be out of town on a work trip 24-26 March, There will not be any write-ups or Sharp report during this time.

Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted on Sat & Sun reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

Game Breakdown

NOTE: I will be out of town on a work trip 24-26 March, There will not be any write-ups or Sharp report during this time.

Teams on a back to back: None.

Wizards/Knicks: Bertans is still out for the Wizards, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Quickley is listed as a GTD for the Knicks, but is probable. Elfrid Payton is again a GTD, and has missed the past 5 consecutive game. His return would be partially reflected in the stats. Derrick Rose is a GTD, but his return would not be reflected in the stats because he has missed the past 8 consecutive games. Wizards are 2-8 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Knicks are 5-5 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Lakers/Pelicans: Gasol is again listed as a GTD for the Lakers, and his return would not be reflected in the stats since he has missed the past 8 consecutive games. LeBron James is out, and his absence is not reflected in the stats. Lonzo Ball is a GTD for the Pelicans, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats. Lakers are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Pelicans are 4-6 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Nuggets/Magic: Monte Morris is still out for the Nuggets for his 6th consecutive game. His absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Chasson Randle is a GTD for today for the Magic, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Terrence Ross is listed as a GTD, but his return would be partially reflected in the stats if he does play. Nuggets are 8-2 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Magic are 1-9 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Nets/Blazers: James Harden is listed as a GTD for the Nets. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Kyrie Irving is out for the next 3 consecutive games, and his absence is not reflected in the stats for today’s game. Landry Shamet is also out for today’s game, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Blazers have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Nets are 8-2 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Blazers are 7-3 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

76ers/Warriors: Seth Curry is again out for the 76ers for his 3rd consecutive game, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. Embiid is out for his 6th consecutive game, and his absence is mostly reflected in the stats. Warriors are coming off of a 2-day rest. James Wiseman is listed as a GTD, but his absence will be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Steph Curry is out again for his 3rd consecutive game, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. 76ers are 8-2 straight up, 7-2-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Warriors are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Suns/Heat: Suns have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Goran Dragic is again listed as a GTD for the Heat, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Suns are 8-2 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Heat are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Sharp Report

NOTE: I will be out of town on a work trip 24-26 March, There will not be any write-ups or Sharp report during this time.

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Nuggets -6.5 & Wizards +3.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Nuggets/Magic Under 219.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Blazers -1 & 76ers -3.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Wizards/Knicks Under 225, Lakers/Pelicans Under 221.5, & Suns/Heat Under 215.5.

Late Afternoon

ATS – Some additional late money came in on the Nuggets -7

Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 66% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS

O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.