NBA Line projections – 27 Mar 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

**Please Pay attention to the recent trades and understand the projections are based on last 8 games. Some players have changed teams within the last 8 games so the stats will be skewed a bit for those teams.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Pistons (Det to Was), Bucks (Home), Mavs (Dal to NO), Pelicans (Home), Cavs (LA to Sac), & Celtics (Mil to OKC). Grizzlies @ Jazz & Rockets @ Wolves played each other last night.

Knicks/Bucks: Elfrid Payton is listed as a GTD for the Knicks for today’s game but is probable. He has missed 5 out of the last 8 games, so if he plays it will only be partially reflected in the stats. Julius Randle is listed as a GTD and is also probable. Reggie Bullock, Nerlens Noel, and Derrick Rose are listed as GTDs as well. Derrick Rose has missed the past 10 consecutive games, so his return would not be reflected in the stats if he plays. Bucks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Knicks are 5-5 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Bucks are 8-2 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bucks are 3-2 on the second night of a back to back, going 1-4 to the over in those games.

Rockets/Wolves: Kelly Olynyk is a GTD for the Rockets, and he has missed the last 2 consecutive games. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Danuel House will be out again for the Rockets for personal reasons. There are no absences for the Wolves that will be accounted for in the stats. Rockets are 1-9 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Wolves are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Rockets are 3-4 on the second night of a back to back. The Wolves are 3-7 losing by an average of 6.4 points.

Pistons/Wizards: Pistons have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Bradley Beal is a GTD for the Wizards, but if he is absent it will not be reflected in the stats. Pistons are 3-7 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Wizards are 2-8 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Pistons are just 2-6 on the second night of a back to back, but an incredible 6-2 ATS.

Bulls/Spurs: Zach LaVine is a GTD for the Bulls, but if he does not play it will not be reflected in the stats. Daniel Theis is out for personal reasons and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Lonnie Walker is out for the Spurs for his 3rd consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Bulls are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Spurs are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Mavericks/Pelicans: Porzingis and Luka Doncic are GTDs for the Mavericks, but their absences would not be reflected in the stats if they do not play. Lonzo Ball is out again for the Pelicans for the 3rd consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Mavericks are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and are 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Pelicans are 4-6 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. The Mavs and the Pelicans are both just 2-5 on the second night of a back to back.

Celtics/Thunder: Celtics have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Bazley is a GTD for the Thunder, but his return would not be reflected in the stats since he has missed the past 8 consecutive games. Gilgeous-Alexander is out again, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Celtics are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Thunder are 5-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. The Celtics are just 3-6 on the second night of a back to back and 7-2 to the over during those same games.

Grizzlies/Jazz: There are no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Grizzlies are 5-5 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Jazz are 6-4 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Grisslies are 3-4 on the second night of a back to back while the Utah Jazz are 6-1 and 2-5 to the over on the back to back.

76ers/Clippers: Joel Embiid is still out for the 76ers for his 8th consecutive game, and his absence is mostly reflected in the stats. Kawhi Leonard and Marcus Morris are GTDs for the Clippers, but their absences would not be reflected in the stats if they do not play. Patrick Beverley is out again for the 7th consecutive game and his absence is mostly reflected in the stats. 76ers are 9-1 straight up, 8-1-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Clippers are 6-4 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games.

Cavs/Kings: Collin Sexton is a GTD for the Cavs after missing the past 2 consecutive games. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Bagley is still out for the Kings for his 7th consecutive game, and his absence is mostly reflected in the stats. Cavs are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Kings are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Cavs are 5-5 on the second night of a back to back but just 2-8 to the over in those same games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not much betting data available this morning.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Rockets/Wolves Over 226.

Mid Day

ATS – some Sharp money has come in on the Rockets +5, Thunder +9, & Kings -7.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Wizards/Pistons Under 229.5, Bulls/Spurs Under 222.5, Grizzlies/Jazz Over 226.5, Cavs/Kings Over 222, & 76ers/Clippers Under 224.5.

Late Afternoon

Posted about 5:00pm CST

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 66% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 64% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 64% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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