These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.
I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.
**Please Pay attention to the recent trades and understand the projections are based on last 8 games. Some players have changed teams within the last 8 games so the stats will be skewed a bit for those teams.
Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.
Top Performing Models
Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.
Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.
This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.
Team Consistency Update
What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Suns score (typically) will deviate about 8.84 points from there average on a given night, where the Cavs score (typically) will deviate 13.63 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.
Teams on a back to back: None.
Blazers/Raptors: Damian Lillard is a GTD for the Blazers today. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. There are no absences for the Raptors that will be accounted for in the stats. Blazers are 6-4 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Raptors are 1-9 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.
Suns/Hornets: Suns have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Malik Monk and PJ Washington are GTDs, but are probable to play. LaMelo Ball is out for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. Suns are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Hornets are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.
Magic/Lakers: Terrence Ross is listed as a GTD for the Magic, and this will be his 7th consecutive absence. His absence will be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. LeBron James is out for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. Magic are 2-8 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Lakers are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games.
Hawks/Nuggets: Hawks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Nuggets just picked up Aaron Gordon, who is listed as a GTD for today’s game. It will not be reflected in the stats if he plays. Hawks are 8-2 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Nuggets are 7-3 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.
Not much betting data available this morning.
ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Suns -5 & Magic +7.5.
O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hawks/Nuggets Under 228.5.
ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Raptors +2.
O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Blazers/Raptors Over 229.
No Late Sharp report today.
Summary of Projections
Summary of Model Projections
1. Neural Network (NN)
Record: 51% ATS, 65% ML, 54% O/U.
New Model Projections
2. Random Forest (R.F.)
Record: 48% ATS, 63% ML, 55% O/U.
3. Basic Model
Record: 51% ATS, 62% ML, 51% O/U.