NBA Line Projections – 29 Mar 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

**Please Pay attention to the recent trades and understand the projections are based on last 8 games. Some players have changed teams within the last 8 games so the stats will be skewed a bit for those teams.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Raptors.

Heat/Knicks: Heat are coming off of a 2-day rest. Goran Dragic is a GTD for the Heat for today’s game, but is probable. He has missed the past 4 consecutive games, so his return would only partially be reflected in the stats. Kendrick Nunn is out, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Oladipo was recently traded to the Heat, but will not debut tonight due to illness. Reggie Bullock is a GTD for the Knicks, and he has missed the past 2 consecutive games. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Randle is a GTD as well, but it will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Heat are 4-6 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Knicks are 6-4 straight up, 7-2-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Raptors/Pistons: Kyle Lowry is a GTD for the Raptors after missing yesterday’s game. His absence will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Jerami Grant is a GTD, but probable, for the Pistons, and it will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Raptors are 1-8 straight up, 3-6 ATS, and 5-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Raptors are also 1-9 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Pistons are 2-8 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wolves/Nets: There are no absences for the Wolves that will be accounted for in the stats. LaMarcus Aldridge just signed with the Nets on Saturday, and is listed as a GTD for today’s game. It will not be reflected in the stats if he plays tonight. Nets are also coming off of a 2-day rest. Wolves are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Nets are 8-2 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pacers/Wizards: Doug McDermott is a GTD for the Pacers. It will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Pacers are also coming off of a 2-day rest. Bradley Beal is a GTD again, but it will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Pacers are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Wizards are 2-8 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pelicans/Celtics: Lonzo Ball is a GTD for the Pelicans, and he has missed the past 4 consecutive games. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Fournier has yet to start with the Celtics, but is listed as a GTD. It will not be reflected in the stats if he plays tonight. Pelicans are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Celtics are 4-6 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Grizzlies/Rockets: There are no absences for the Grizzlies that will be accounted for in the stats. Christian Wood is a GTD for the Rockets due to illness. It will be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Grizzlies are 4-6 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Rockets are 2-8 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Warriors: Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen are GTDs for the Bulls, but are both probable. It will not be reflected in the stats if either one does not play. Theis is also a GTD. Steph Curry is a GTD for the Warriors after missing the past 5 consecutive games. It will be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Warriors are also coming off of a 2-day rest. Bulls are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Warriors are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and are 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bucks/Clippers: Bucks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Patrick Beverley is out, and has now been out for 8 consecutive games, so his absence will be fully reflected in the stats. Bucks are 8-2 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Clippers are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Cavs/Jazz: Jarrett Allen will be out for the Cavs for today’s game, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Mike Conley is a GTD for the Jazz, and it will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Cavs are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Jazz are 7-3 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Mavericks/Thunder: There are no absences for the Mavericks that will be accounted for in the stats. Bazley is a GTD for the Thunder, but his return will not be reflected in the stats if he does play because he has missed more than 8 consecutive games. Dort is a GTD, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Gilgeous-Alexander is out, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Mavericks are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Thunder are 5-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Spurs: Bagley will be out for his 8th consecutive game for the Kings, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Lonnie Walker is out again for the Spurs for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Kings are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 2-7-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Spurs are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not much betting data available this morning.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Grizzlies -5, Mavs -10, & Clippers -0.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Heat/Knicks Under 208.5 & Kings/Spurs Over 227.

Late Afternoon

No noticeable late action.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 65% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 63% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 62% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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