NBA Line Projections – 31 Mar 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

**Please Pay attention to the recent trades and understand the projections are based on last 8 games. Some players have changed teams within the last 8 games so the stats will be skewed a bit for those teams.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Suns (home).

Initial Thoughts: Unders have been on a crazy run lately, no surprise the models are all favoring the under based on recent performance. Nets are undervalued, they have been scoring less points recently, but with Kyrie back the offense can turn it on at any time.

Rockets/Nets: Danuel House and Christian Wood are GTDs for the Rockets, but are both probable. Neither absence would be reflected in the stats if they do not play. John Wall is also a GTD for today’s game, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. LaMarcus Aldridge has yet to make his debut with the Nets, and he is out for today’s game. Rockets are 2-8 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Nets are 8-2 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Jazz/Grizzlies: Donovan Mitchell is out for the Jazz for personal reasons. His absence will not be reflected in the stats. Grayson Allen is a GTD for the Grizzlies, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Jazz are 8-2 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Grizzlies are 5-5 straight up, and 6-4 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Mavericks/Celtics: Mavericks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Jaylen Brown is a GTD for the Celtics, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Mavericks are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Celtics are 4-6 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Blazers/Pistons: Blazers have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Wayne Ellington is a GTD for the Pistons, but is listed as doubtful. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Blazers are 7-3 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Pistons are 3-7 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Pacers: Kendrick Nunn is a GTD for the Heat. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Oladipo has yet to debut with the Heat, and will be out again tonight. McDermott is again a GTD for the Pacers, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Heat are 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Pacers are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bucks/Lakers: Bucks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. LeBron James will be out for his 6th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Bucks are 7-3 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. Lakers are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 2-7-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Suns: Zach LaVine is a GTD for the Bulls, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Coby White is also a GTD after missing their last game, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Garrett Temple returned for 2 games after being out for 7 consecutive games, and is listed as a GTD. His absence will mostly be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Suns have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Bulls are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. Suns are 8-2 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Suns are also 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Spurs: There are no absences for the Kings that will be accounted for in the stats. Lonnie Walker is a GTD for the Spurs, but is probable. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Kings are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Spurs are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Knicks/Wolves: Derrick Rose is a GTD for the Knicks, but he has missed 6 out of the last 8 games, so his absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. There are no absences for the Wolves that will be accounted for in the stats. Knicks are 5-5 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Wolves are 3-7 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Raptors/Thunder: Bembry is out again for the Raptors for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Dort is out again for the Thunder, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. Gilgeous-Alexander is also out again for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. Raptors are 1-9 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Thunder are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Grizzlies +8 & Bucks – 8

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Blazers/Pistons Over 219.5, Kings/Spurs Under 232, & Bucks/Lakers Under 223.5.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Blazers -6, Rockets +14.5, Knicks -3, & Kings +3.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Mavs/Celtics Under 225.5, Heat/Pacers Over 217, & Rockets/Nets Over 227.

Late Afternoon

No noticeable late Sharp action.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 64% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 62% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 52% ATS, 62% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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