NBA Line Projections – 1 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

**Please Pay attention to the recent trades and understand the projections are based on last 8 games. Some players have changed teams within the last 8 games so the stats will be skewed a bit for those teams.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Pistons (Home), Heat (Ind to Mia), Nets (Home), & Spurs (Home).

76ers/Cavs: 76ers have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats since Embiid has been out more than 8 consecutive games. Cavs are coming off of a 2-day rest. Jarrett Allen is out again for the Cavs for the 3rd consecutive game, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. Larry Nance is also out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. 76ers are 7-3 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Cavs are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Pistons: Bradley Beal is a GTD again for the Wizards after missing the past 2 consecutive games. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Ellington is again listed as a GTD for the Pistons after missing yesterday’s game. He has missed 4 out of the last 8 games, so his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Wizards are 3-7 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Pistons are 2-7 straight up, 6-3 ATS, and 5-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Pistons are also 3-7 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hornets/Nets: Malik Monk is a GTD for the Hornets, and is listed as probable. He has missed the past 2 consecutive games, so his absence would only be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. LaMelo Ball is out for his 6th consecutive game, so his absence is mostly reflected in the stats. LaMarcus Aldridge is again a GTD and has yet to play a game for the Nets. It will not be reflected in the stats if he finally debuts. James Harden is a GTD, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Hornets are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. Nets are 4-4 straight up, 3-5 ATS, and 4-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Nets are also 8-2 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Warriors/Heat: Warriors are coming off of a 2-day rest. Steph Curry has returned for the Warriors after missing 5 of the last 8 games. His return will only be partially reflected in the stats. Oladipo is listed as a GTD, but is expected to make his debut tonight with the Heat. It will not be reflected in the stats if he debuts. Kendrick Nunn is a GTD again after missing the past 2 consecutive games. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Warriors are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Heat are 3-4 straight up, and 4-3 ATS and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Heat are also 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Magic/Pelicans: Magic have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Pelicans are coming off of a 2-day rest. Lonzo Ball is listed as a GTD after missing the past 5 consecutive games. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Zion Williamson is also a GTD, and it would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Magic are 3-7 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Pelicans are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hawks/Spurs: John Collins is out for today’s game for the Hawks. His absence will not be reflected in the stats. Lonnie Walker is again a GTD for the Spurs, but he has missed the past 5 consecutive games, so his return would be partially reflected in the stats if he plays. Hawks are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Spurs are 2-6 straight up, 4-4 ATS, and 3-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Spurs are also 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Nuggets/Clippers: Nuggets have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Marcus Morris is a GTD for the Clippers after missing the last game. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Paul George is out again for his 3rd consecutive game, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. Nuggets are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Clippers are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not a lot of betting data available this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Warriors +2.5.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the 76ers -8.5, Wizards -1, & Nets +1. There was also buyback on the Heat -2.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the 76ers/Cavs Under 214.5, & Hornets/Nets over 222.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 64% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 63% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 61% ML, 50% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

3 comments

  1. Thanks for doing these, I look forward to them every morning. A question for you if you don’t mind –

    What is considered “Consensus” across the 3 models? Is there some threshold they all have to be over, or is it simply if all 3 are in agreement, even if one thinks an event is 20% likely and the other thinks it’s 3% likely?

    Thanks again, hoping to eventually develop a system and make enough money to throw some your way.

    On Thu, Apr 1, 2021 at 6:31 AM B2 Sports Analytics wrote:

    > b2stats posted: ” These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the > only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part > of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and > players returning from injury. All stats pulled are T” >

    Like

  2. The consensus is if all of the models are on 1 side and the probability is >55%. So today every model is showing a >55% probability the Magic cover the spread (doesn’t fully factor in that they just traded away their entire team tho).

    I debated doing a majority rather than consensus(4 or more models on one side), but nobody has really said anything either way about the consensus so i have just left it.

    Like

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