NBA Line Projections – 3 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

**Please Pay attention to the recent trades and understand the projections are based on last 8 games. Some players have changed teams within the last 8 games so the stats will be skewed a bit for those teams.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Mavs (NY to Was), Knicks (NY to Det), T-Wolves (Mem to Phi), Pacers (Ind to SA), Jazz (Home), Thunder (Pho to Por), Blazers (Home), Bucks (Por to Sac), & Kings (Home).

Mavs/Wizards: Bradley Beal has missed the last 3 games and is questionable again tonight vs the Mavs. If he can’t go, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Mavs are 2-6 straight up and ATS, and 4-4 to the over on the second night of the back to back, with an average points margin of -10 points in those games. Porzingis typically rests on the second night of a back to back, something to take advantage of before the news is official. The Mavs are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Wizards are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The wizards are 16-9 to the over at home this season.

Knicks/Pistons: Mitchell Robinson is out for the Knicks for the 4th straight game tonight, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Knicks are 4-5 straight up, 5-4 ATS, and 3-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Knicks are 4-6 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pistons are 4-6 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Knicks are 8-17 to the over on the road this season.

Cavs/Heat: Jarret Allen is out for the fourth straight game for the Cavs. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Cavaliers are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Heat are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Heat are just 9-15-1 ATS at home this season. The Cavs are 8-15-1 to the over on the road this season.

Wolves/76ers: Ricky Rubio is questionable for the Wolves after sitting out yesterday. If he can’t play his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Joel Embiid is listed as questionable and may make his return today, although he will likely be on a minutes restriction if he does play. If he plays, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Wolves are 3-8 straight up, 4-6-1 ATS, and 5-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back, with an average points margin of -7.8 points in those games. The Wolves are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The 76ers have played well without Embiid going 7-3 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The 76ers are 16-7 ATS and 14-9 to the over at home this season.

Pacers/Spurs: Brodgon was a late scratch yesterday, Sabonis Left with an ankle injury, and Lamb was out last night. All three are questionable tonight and if they cant go, their respective impacts will not be reflected in the stats. The Pacers are 5-4 straight up, ATS, and to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Pacers are 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Spurs are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pacers are 17-8 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pacers travel is Brutal!

Magic/Jazz: The Magic traded away most of their starting lineup at last weeks deadline, but surprisingly are 3-2 straight up and 5-0 ATS since the deadline. The Jazz are 7-1 straight up, 6-2 ATS, and 3-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back, with an average points margin of +9.4 points. The Magic are 4-6 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Jazz are 9-1 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Jazz are an incredible 21-2 straight up and 17-6 ATS at home this season. The Magic are 7-16 straight up on the road this season.

Thunder/Blazers: Bazley, Dort, and Gilgeous-Alexander remain out for the Thunder. Their absences will be reflected in the stats, except Dort, whose absence will only be half reflected in the stats (missed 4 of last 8). OKC is 5-5 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over on the second night of a back to back, but have an average points margin of -6.8. The Blazers are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 7-3 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Thunder are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Blazers are 7-3 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Thunder are 15-9 ATS on the road this season and the Blazers are 9-15 ATS at home this season. The Thunders Travel is Brutal!

Bucks/Kings: There aren’t any injuries not accounted for in the stats. The Bucks are 3-3 straight up and ATS, and 1-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back, going under by an average of 15.7 points. The Kings are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 5-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back, with an average points margin of -6.7 points in those games. The Bucks are 7-3 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Kings are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Kings are 9-16 ATS at home and 16-9 to the over ate home this season. The Bucks are 9-14 ATS on the road this season.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not much betting data available yet this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Heat -11.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Thunder/Blazers Under 227.5.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Wizards +6.5, Knicks -1.5, & 76ers -9.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Wizards/Mavs Under 228.5, Knicks/Pistons Under 207.5, Wolves/76ers Under 230.5, Cavs/Heat Over 204, & Magic/Jazz Over 214.5.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 64% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 62% ML, 56% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 61% ML, 52% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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