NBA Line Projections – 4 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

**Please Pay attention to the recent trades and understand the projections are based on last 8 games. Some players have changed teams within the last 8 games so the stats will be skewed a bit for those teams.

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Records

Started tracking Moneyline projections as well. Started tracking Moneyline picks 24 Feb.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Magic & 76ers.

My quick thoughts: Embiid will likely rest tonight on the back to back coming back off an injury (My speculation).

Nets/Bulls: Nets are coming off a 2-day rest. James Harden will be out for the Nets for today’s game and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Zach LaVine is a GTD for the Bulls but is probable. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Coby White is also a GTD and probable, but his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Garrett Temple is out again for his 3rd consecutive game, but he has missed the past 6 out of 8 games, so his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Nets are 8-2 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Bulls are 2-8 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Lakers/Clippers: Andre Drummond is a GTD for the Lakers after only playing one game for them since his trade. His absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. LeBron James is out for his 8th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Clippers are coming off a 2-day rest, and they have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Lakers are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. Clippers are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hornets/Celtics: LaMelo Ball is out for his 8th consecutive game for the Hornets, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Gordon Hayward is out as well for at least the next 4 weeks, and his absence will not be reflected in today’s stats. Malik Monk is out and has missed 3 of the last 8 games, so his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Jaylen Brown is a GTD for the Celtics, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Hornets are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. Celtics are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Grizzlies/76ers: Grizzlies have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Embiid returned for last night’s game for the 76ers after missing several weeks. He is listed as a GTD for tonight’s game as it is the second night of a back-to-back. His absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. Grizzlies are 6-4 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. 76ers are 4-4 straight up, 2-5-1 ATS, and 4-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. 76ers are also 7-3 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Warriors/Hawks: Draymond Green is a GTD for the Warriors, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Danilo Gallinari and Trae Young are GTDs for the Hawks, but their absences would not be reflected in the stats if they do not play. John Collins is out for his 3rd consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Warriors are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and are 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Hawks are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and are 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pelicans/Rockets: Lonzo Ball is a GTD for the Pelicans after missing the past 7 consecutive games. His absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. Brandon Ingram is a GTD as well, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Zion Williamson is again a GTD after missing the past 2 games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. John Hart is out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. John Wall is out again for the Rockets for his 3rd consecutive game. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Pelicans are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Rockets are 2-8 straight up, and 3-7 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Magic/Nuggets: Michael Carter-Williams is a GTD for the Magic after missing the past 2 games. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Nuggets are coming off a 2-day rest and have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Magic are 5-4 straight up, and 6-3 ATS and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Magic are also 4-6 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Nuggets are 8-2 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not much betting data available yet this morning.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Lakers/Clippers Under 215.5, Warriors/Hawks over 223.5, & Magic/Nuggets Under 215.5

Mid Day

ATS – Some small Sharp money came in on the Nets -1.5, 76ers -2, & Pelicans -4.5.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 65% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 63% ML, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 51% ATS, 62% ML, 52% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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